Farmer's Almanac predicts abnormally cold winter

LEWISTON, Maine (AP) - Americans should double-check their supply of long johns and sweaters for the winter ahead, which the Farmers' Almanac predicts will be colder than usual across three-fourths of the nation.

Peter Geiger, Farmers' Almanac
Pat Wellenbach

Peter Geiger, editor at the Farmers' Almanac holds up a copy of the latest edition, at his office in Lewiston, on Friday, August 28, 2009. The Farmers' Almanac predicts this winter will be colder than usual across three-fourths of the nation. But the National Weather Service is calling for a warmer-than-normal winter across much of the country because of El Nino conditions. The almanac's 2010 edition goes on sale Tuesday, has been published since 1818 and claims an 80 to 85 percent accuracy rate.(AP Photo/Pat Wellenbach)

But people who put their stock in the more scientific-based National Weather Service might want to think twice, with the weather service calling for a warmer-than-normal winter.

The almanac's 2010 edition, which goes on sale Tuesday, says numbingly cold temperatures will predominate in the country's midsection, from the Rocky Mountains in the West to the Appalachians in the East.

"Basically we're saying it's going to be an ice cold sandwich," said managing editor Sandi Duncan. "We feel the middle part of the country's really going to be cold - very very cold, very very frigid, with a lot of snow. On the east and west coasts, it's going to be a little milder. Not to say it's going to be a mild short winter, but it'll be milder compared to the middle of the country."

The Farmers' Almanac, which has been published since 1818, issues annual forecasts that are spelled out in three- and four-day increments broken down into seven regions. The almanac claims an 80 to 85 percent accuracy rate, but many people read the forecasts only in fun.

This winter, the 200-page publication says it'll be cool and snowy in the Northeast, bitterly cold and dry in the Great Lakes states, and cold and snowy across North Central states. The Northwest will be cool with average precipation, the Southwest will be mild and dry, the South Central states will be cold and wet and the Southeast will be mild and dry.

The forecasts are prepared two years in advance and are based on a secret formula using sun spots, planet positions and the effects of the moon, said editor Peter Geiger.

The almanac's forecast is at odds with the National Weather Service's long-range outlook for the meteorological winter, from December through February.

The weather service is calling for warmer-than-normal temperatures across much of the country because of an El Nino weather system that has developed in the tropical Pacific Ocean, said Mike Halpert, deputy director of the NOAA Climate Prediction Center in Camp Springs, Md.

"The stronger El Nino becomes, the more confident and the more likely it will be the northern part of the country will have a milder than average winter," Halpert said.

As for precipitation, the El Nino conditions have forecasters predicting wet winter conditions along the southern tier of the U.S., with dry conditions in the Northwest and the Ohio Valley.

The climate prediction center issues long-range forecasts up to a year out, but it's hard to be accurate that far out because of unforeseen variables. As for almanacs, "We view them more as entertainment than as science," Halpert said.

Geiger stands by his almanac's forecasts, saying they have "stood the test of time." The 2009 edition accurately predicted last winter's cold conditions and the extreme rains that the Northeast got in June and July, he said.

"We don't hit every darn day, but we're pretty darn accurate," Geiger said. "People use us all the time to plan weddings and vacations."

The Farmer's Almanac, not to be confused with the New Hampshire-based Old Farmer's Almanac, has a circulation of about 3.5 million, Geiger said. Besides weather forecasts, it features a mix of helpful hints, recipes, gardening tips, anecdotes, jokes and inspirational message.

This year's edition focuses on the environment and on money matters. It features articles on how to make do with less, how to stretch your meal money and how to get back to the land.

But it's the weather forecasts that draw people to the almanac.

"Already I'm getting peppered with 'Should I lock in my heating oil costs? Should I buy a shovel? Should I do this, should I do that?'" Geiger said.

As for next summer, the almanac is calling for hotter-than-usual conditions across most of the country.

And the National Weather Service? Its long-range summer forecast also predicts that much of the country will be hotter than normal.

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Displaying comments, from newest to oldest

Ad3m's picture

Very nice Site number one

Very nice Site number one topic. I predict that it will be so cold by January that when people speak their words will freeze and you will have to wait until spring thaw to find out what they said. My theory is based on ink spots and the voices in my head.
regards
sohbet | muhabbet

JoelBusler2's picture

I predict it will be cold

I predict it will be cold and snow this winter. This is so easy. Anyone can predict the weather. Sign me up to start writing for the Journal or the Farmer's Almanac.

JohnnyP's picture

I predict it will be so cold

I predict it will be so cold this winter there will be ice hanging from people's eaves... There will be frozen rain, falling from the sky... Lakes and ponds will gather 2-3 feet of ice!

- Call me, Johnny P Geiger.

big daddy's picture

How many times has the

How many times has the weather people gotten it wrong with million dollar equipment.The Almanac get's it right more often than the weatherman.

T's picture

How about some FACTS to

How about some FACTS to support your ridiculous claim.

j_bones's picture

Actually, the Almanc has

Actually, the Almanc has been pretty good about calling the wet weather. Even the chilly days we've been having lately.

momof4's picture

It might be cold out unless

It might be cold out unless it's not....

ekaiser's picture

@dnstapes, I wish we could

@dnstapes, I wish we could charge Geiger for this, but it's an AP story which means it cost us money ;-)

tron's picture

Doesn't seem strange that

Doesn't seem strange that the SJ needs to get a story about a Lewiston business from the Associated Press? Doesn't the SJ employ their own reporters anymore, or do they only report doings in Farmington cemeteries?

JohnnyP's picture

Did the Farmer's Almanac

Did the Farmer's Almanac predict the wettest summer in history?

dnstapes's picture

yet another big

yet another big advertisement for geiger. how much did they pay for the article this year?

Winterbear98's picture

I predicts alot less snow

I predicts alot less snow this winter because we had such a rainy summer and temps way above normal so everyone can now relax

momathome's picture

But.... What about global

But.... What about global WARMING!?

tron's picture

Everyone gladly points out

Everyone gladly points out the times the Almanac is correct, but never mentions when it's wrong. But still, it's a good read and does have valuable info on tides and fishing.

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