New poll shows Mainers support gay marriage, TABOR

LEWISTON — A poll released Wednesday says Mainers planning to vote on Election Day favor keeping Maine's law allowing same-sex marriage and enacting state spending caps.

The omnibus poll was released by Portland-based Pan Atlantic SMS Group, which surveyed 401 registered Maine voters who said they were likely to vote on Nov. 3. It was conducted between Sept. 30 and Oct. 7 and has a margin of error of about 5 percent.

When asked whether they would reject a new law that lets same-sex couples marry and allows individuals and groups to refuse to perform these marriages, about 52 percent of Mainers said they would vote or were leaning toward voting no and about 43 percent said they would vote or were leaning toward voting yes. About 5 percent said they were undecided, according to the poll.

Polling conducted in mid-September by a different group said 46 percent of likely Maine voters would vote no on question 1 and 48 percent would vote yes.

Jesse Connolly, campaign manager for the No on 1 group, said the poll was encouraging but not a cause for celebration.

"We have every reason to believe this is going to be a razor-thin election," he said. "I think we judge where we are by a bunch of different things and polls are just one of those."

Requests for comment from the Yes on 1 campaign were not answered.

The poll said 50 percent of Catholics would vote yes to reject the law and about 43 percent would vote no in support of it, with about 7 percent undecided.

The survey looked at other Maine referendum questions as well as national health care reform, the governor's race in Maine and state gun laws.

On Question 2, which asks whether voters favor a cut in automobile excise taxes, about 48 percent said they would vote or were leaning toward yes and about 46 percent said they would vote or were leaning toward voting no.

The poll also showed likely Maine voters in favor of repealing the 2007 school consolidation law, about 46 percent to about 41 percent, with about 13 percent undecided.

On Question 4, the taxpayer bill of rights question, which would limit state spending and require voter approval by referendum for spending over those caps, about 53 percent said they would vote or were leaning toward voting in favor of the limits, with about 39 percent opposed and about 8.5 percent undecided.

The poll did not include data about Question 5, which would allow for medical marijuana dispensaries.

Jim Melcher, a political science professor at the University of Maine at Farmington, said people should be careful about reading too much into the polling results.

"What you can get out of the polls is that things are relatively close, especially on same-sex marriage, " he said.

Voting on such issues can be volatile, Melcher said. "Also, the position seeking to change the status quo tends to lose steam over time and I think that works against (the taxpayer bill of rights question)."

About 88 percent of likely Maine voters favored changing Maine law to require criminal background checks before people can buy handguns at gun shows, according to the poll. About 9 percent oppose such a law, with about 3 percent of undecided.

rmetzler@sunjournal.com