New poll shows shift in tax, school referendum questions

LEWISTON — A new poll released Monday reveals large shifts in how Maine voters say they will vote on several of the referendum questions slated for the Nov. 3 ballot, compared to a similar poll from earlier this month.

While voters have remained somewhat consistent on the same-sex marriage law in Question 1, the poll showed more voters oppose cutting the municipal excise tax, oppose repealing the school consolidation law and oppose enacting state spending caps (TABOR).

The Pan Atlantic SMS Group, a Portland-based polling firm, surveyed over the telephone 400 likely Maine voters between Oct. 20 and Oct. 22. The results have a 4.9 percent margin of error. This is the same firm that released a poll about two weeks ago.

According to the poll, about 53 percent of voters said they favor voting against the repeal of a new Maine law allowing same-sex marriage; about 42 percent said they favor voting for repeal. About 6 percent remain undecided. Catholics also remain nearly split on the issue. These results are similar to the poll released Oct. 14.

Patrick Murphy, president of the Pan Atlantic SMS Group, said it's likely that Question 1 will be closer than the poll indicates.

"National pollsters say there is an impact by people who don't want to say, "I'm against this," because they might feel they might be seen as bigoted," he said, adding that voter turnout will be a key factor as well.  

On Question 2, a proposal to cut municipal excise tax and exempt hybrid cars from both the excise and sales tax, voters currently oppose the question by about a 2-to-1 margin. Previously, they had been nearly evenly split on the issue. Now, about 61 percent said they favor voting against the proposal and about 29 percent said they favor it. About 11 percent are undecided, up from 5.5 percent previously.

"Anecdotally, what we heard in interviewing people, was that the ad (the No on 2 campaign) has been running, with the auto mechanic, people found that ad very, very strong," Murphy said. 

Those supporting the 2007 school consolidation law also saw more support since the last poll. About 45 percent of voters said they favor maintaining the 2007 school consolidation law and about 39 percent favor repealing it, according to the poll. About 16.5 percent are undecided on the issue. This marks about a 10 percentage point shift in support of maintaining the law from the previous poll.

The question asking voters whether or not they want to enact a taxpayers bill of rights, which would require statewide referendum approval for any tax increases or increases in government spending, marked the largest swing with voters — about 20 percentage points — between the two polls.

About 49 percent of voters said they would vote or are leaning toward voting against enacting the spending limits and about 42 percent said they favor them. About 9 percent remain undecided. Previously, about 39 percent of voters said they favor rejecting the caps and about 53 percent said they support such measures.

Murphy said though the shift in polling was significant on the TABOR question, it wasn't surprising given the amount of advertising for the No on 4 side and lack of response by the Yes on 4 side.

"When one side is out there just pummeling the position of the other side and it doesn't respond on tv for that period of time, I think you can expect to see that kind of movement," he said. "Right now we're showing a seven-point margin against it, but when you consider the margin of error in the poll and the fact that it is a snapshot at a point in time, this is going to be a close one it looks like."

The Pan Atlantic poll also surveyed voters on Question 5, which would allow for medical marijuana dispensaries in Maine. About 59 percent of voters said they favor the dispensaries, about 32 percent said they are opposed and about 9 percent were undecided. This question was not part of the previous poll.

Overall, Murphy said increased advertising is likely to have impacted the most recent poll more than anything else, but he cautioned against using the poll results as a predictor of what will happen on Election Day.

"It's an off-election year, so it's very hard to project the size of the electorate," he said, adding that voter turnout and get-out-the-vote efforts will determine the fate of both Question 1 and Question 4.

rmetzler@sunjournal.com