Pundits break down Question 1 vote

Partners Lisa Brackbill, left, and Lisa Pugh, right, both from Buckfield, Maine console one another along with Darlene Huntress, center, of Portland, after learning about the unofficial defeat on Question 1 at election night headquarters in Portland, Maine, early Wednesday morning, Nov. 4, 2009. Maine voters decided decide to rescind the Legislature's approval of same-sex marriage.(AP Photo/Pat Wellenbach)

- Pat Wellenbach

LEWISTON — Despite recent polling that indicated strong support for keeping Maine's law allowing same-sex marriage, voters rejected it by a margin of about 53 percent to 47 percent, according to unofficial tallies. Local political analysts speculated several factors may have played into the discrepancy, including a last-minute shift in support.

"We've certainly seen in the case of past elections in Maine where the pro-gay-rights side has lost steam over time," said Jim Melcher, a political science professor at the University of Maine at Farmington. "My theory about Maine voters and change is that the closer you get to Election Day, whatever proposal's going to call for more change tends to lose steam."

He said some people answering pollsters' questions might not have been honest, for fear of sounding bigoted.

Douglas Hodgkin of Lewiston, a former political science professor at Bates College, said talking to a pollster is a "social situation" and agreed that people feel pressure to answer questions in a way that appears to favor equality, particularly when talking to a stranger.

"I know in terms of polling, on sensitive issues, that you could have people misrepresenting what their intentions are," Hodgkin said.

He said it's important to remember that polls are only snapshots of public opinion, not predictions of results.

The exceptionally high turnout for an "off-year" election, which exceeded 50 percent, helped both sides, Hodgkin said, though conventional wisdom leading up to the election said it would favor those hoping to maintain the law allowing same-sex marriage.

"It cut both sides; it wasn't motivating only one particular segment of the electorate," he said.

Patrick Murphy, president of the Pan Atlantic SMS Group polling firm, which released a poll on Oct. 26 indicating supporters of same-sex marriage had an 11-point lead, said the lying-to-the-pollster theory may account for some of the disparity between the poll numbers and the election result.

"That's one explanation," he said. "I also think the strength of the more conservative or fundamentalist churches and also the Catholic Church might have been underestimated somewhat, in terms of getting their core believers out to vote."

Murphy's poll showed Maine Catholics nearly evenly split on the issue, but he said those who favored rejection of the new law were probably more motivated to get out and vote.

"I gather from people who are practicing Catholics that they put on a tremendous effort at the pulpit and at their churches in the last two weekends and I presume that influenced those that were maybe on the fence to get out and vote for this," he said.

Hodgkin said he'd heard a similar story from a friend who is Catholic: Elderly in-laws were motivated to vote for the first time in 15 years because they felt so strongly about the issue of marriage.

"It was their Catholic faith that triggered the interest in the issue," he said.

Catholic strongholds such as Lewiston, Auburn, Biddeford and Augusta voted to reject the same-sex marriage law, according to unofficial results.

Chris Potholm, a government professor at Bowdoin College, said the explanation for the difference between the polls and the election result was simple.

"I think the 'no' side was ahead and if the election had been held two weeks ago, they would have won," he said, adding that strong advertising by opponents during the past week or so of campaigning probably accounted for the shift.

rmetzler@sunjournal.com