On Saturday, Feb. 10 - Abraham Lincoln's birthday weekend, no less - Illinois senator Barack Obama is expected to officially announce his candidacy for the country's top spot in 2008.

Since it's never too early to make predictions that I won't really be held to anyhow, I'll make one now.

Barack Obama will not be elected president.

Ever since he formed his presidential exploratory committee a few weeks back, a lot of ink has been spilled analyzing Obama's potential strengths or weaknesses as a candidate.

The one potential drawback endlessly discussed about him is that voters won't elect someone with the name Barack Obama. And they're right but for all the wrong reasons.

It doesn't matter that his name reminds people of bad guys - especially that bald guy with fangs on Mortal Kombat - but it is his first name that's the problem. Unless you're part of a dynasty, a politician's surname is an afterthought. It's good for recognition on buttons, billboards and ballots.

But the first name is what sells voters on the candidate's personality.

Americans like presidents with simple, short, familiar names. More often than not, our oval office officials have had comforting names that remind us of kindly salesmen. Think about it: The first six presidents were George, John, Tom, Jim, Jim and John; the last five have been Jimmy, Ronnie, George, Bill and George.

Sure, you could argue that this is sort of to be expected with a lot of dead white guys. You could even argue that these names fail to reflect the cultural and ethnic diversity of our national melting pot. You'd be right, but it doesn't change the fact that even among the dead white guys, presidents with names like Grover, Millard and Rutherford will continue to be exceptions.

So what's Barack to do if he wants round trips on Air Force One? Embrace his inner Barry.

Back in his old college days, Obama was known as Barry, and it's a great name - for a president.

Barry is a guy you'd see riding in his pick-up to church; a guy you'd share a domestic beer with while watching football, and never soccer. Barry is the guy who would sell you a good insurance plan without a lot of unnecessary coverage.

Barry could kiss the babies, spare a Thanksgiving turkey, and receive five thousand standing ovations during the State of the Union speech. But Barry is also pretty boring and predictable.

Meanwhile, Barack is a rock star's name.

Barack is a good name for Obama. He's a young dude who has (organically or through orchestration) crafted a potent public persona. Just like Madonna, Barack is a free-standing one-word name for an upstart people either love or loathe. Like it or not, a rock star's power can even outweigh a president's at times - with more devoted fans eager to follow a message.

Voters won't elect Obama as president, but as a rock star senator he'll do better. He may even be able to inject energy into and affect lasting changes in politics.

After all, Paul Hewson could have been an OK name for a president, but he's made a greater impact on the world as Bono.

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Aaron Sagers writes for Merge, an edition of The (Allentown, Pa.) Morning Call. E-mail him at aaron.sagers@mergedigital.com. Find Merge online at: www.mergedigital.com.