John and Barack want to get to know you better
By Rebekah Metzler
,
Staff Writer
Monday, August 25, 2008
And the more they know about you, the better their campaigns can target your support. What car do you drive?
Does Barack Obama care about what movies you watch? Would it make a difference to John McCain if you owned a truck instead of a car?
The answers may surprise you.
Politicking nationwide has reached a fever pitch heading into the final months of campaigning before the November election. At a premium among campaigns is information - specific information, specifically about you. Thanks to increasingly sophisticated polling techniques, candidates are learning how to target their messages to an almost individual level.
"Micro-targeting is not magic, but it allows for educated analysis of voting trends that can help to track voter behavior," said Blair Latoff, a Republican National Committee spokeswoman. "It can't win an election on its own, but it certainly helps maximize the effectiveness of a campaign's messaging."
Laura Quinn, chief executive officer of Catalist, the leading national database of voter information used by Democrats, said the key to efficient campaigning is a high volume of diverse information.
"There are lifelong Republicans who are worried about what's happening with climate change," she said, citing an issue traditionally dominated by Democrats. "If you know how to approach the conversation, you might be able to make much more headway (gaining their support for a Democratic candidate)."
Catalist gathers information from three sources: public records, political and grassroots organizations and commercial data before using sophisticated calculations to glean useful patterns from it.
For instance, by using a combination of U.S. Census data and the Maine Bureau of Motor Vehicles, the Sun Journal was able make a rudimentary profile of the "average Mainer."
In case you're curious: You're about 40-years-old, you drive a 1999 Ford Taurus, you're married and you've got a cat. Maybe a kid. And you're white.
A company like Catalist would take that simple demographic data, layer it with contact information collected by local grassroots organizations as well as any commercial data they could obtain, and, for a price, tell a campaign which issues to stress with which voters.
Quinn said the key to success is having enough information to create patterns. From there, the applications for campaigns are clear. "You do some initial polling and you sort the electorate into groups - those we can absolutely count on, those we can't and everybody else in the middle," she said. "If the group in the middle is mostly 'soccer moms,' you might design your advertising strategy around that type of audience."
Commercially the trend has been evolving for years.
"Collaborative filtering" is what Steve Swasey, spokesman for Netflix, calls it. He said it wasn't enough to just know what movies people were renting, so they created a ranking system so users could share whether they liked their selections or not, and Netflix could then recommend other, similar movies to members.
"What (we recommend) is tied to what other people who like the same movies as you have rated positively," he said. "More than 60 percent of Netflix members have rated at least 200 movies, which gives us this enormous database of movie ratings. We have these very extensive algorithms that calculate the likelihood you're going to like another movie similar to it."
But the personal minutiae gathered to aid political campaigns is staggering.
"Some (information) might be somewhat trivial, like you opened e-mails five times this year, but all of it matters," Quinn said. "Are you someone who signs a petition or are you someone who knocks on doors? Are you clicking and responding to an e-mail or are you actually writing a check and making a donation?"
Groups like Rock the Vote, which focuses on registering young voters across the country, have really taken advantage of micro-targeting.
For instance, beyond realizing text messaging is a great way to contact young people, they even know the best time of day to do so, Quinn said.
The 2004 presidential election proved the role of micro-targeting in campaigns. Karl Rove, a Republican strategist, is credited with using data collected from as far back as the Nixon campaign to bolster voter turnout for President Bush when running for re-election.
Democrats rebounded by the 2006 congressional election cycle, sweeping into the majority in both the House and the Senate, aided by their use of the enhanced polling tactics.
In Maine, it's unclear if campaigns have tried to take advantage of the trend.
Steve Abbott, campaign manager for Maine U.S. Sen. Susan Collins, a Republican running for re-election, said their campaign chose to stick with traditional polling and not spend the extra money for micro-targeting.
"It's too expensive and didn't make sense for the state because we're really homogenous," he said.
On the Democratic side, Rep. Tom Allen's campaign is staying tight-lipped about their game plan.
"We are making sure we talk to Maine voters about what they care about. ... Other than that, I won't go into our strategies," said Carol Andrews, Allen's campaign spokeswoman.
Since last fall, Allen's campaign has spent more than $150,000 on a polling firm that also happens to be a Catalist client, according to Federal Election Commission records. The Collins' campaign has spent about a third as much on polling.
The bottom line, said Sandy Maisel, a political science professor from Colby College, is not that politics is changing, rather the tools are.
"How do you get the most bang for your buck? It's evolutionary as technology has changed," Maisel said.
Quinn, from Catalist, said ultimately it's democracy as a whole that benefits.
"One thing is certain: When politics becomes more personal, people get more engaged and more likely to participate, and that's a good thing," she said. |
CLICK HERE To Show/Hide Discussion Thread - (5 Comments)
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Posted By:ConcernedCommunityMember at August 25, 2008 10:23 AM (Suggest Removal) Your correct Ms. Maisel when you say "the bottom line is not that politics is changing". It's getting worse and worse when it comes to policies and efforts to assist the middle class working folks; not to mention more and more corrupt. How are we to have any confidence at all in this so-called democratic society? It's become a joke! Except it's not funny in the least...
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Posted By:Larry W. at August 25, 2008 3:57 PM (Suggest Removal) If there ever was a time of honest politics, it is long gone. Once a handshake was the bond between the voters and the electorate and I am certain many tried to change the system for the good of the people.
In reality we need to separate the machine of politics from the powerful and end the cycle of always sending back the same politicians back to a job they failed at time and again.
Some build their campaign around change and want us to believe it is real when they truly know that in the showcase of the run up to the election, they only have water colors that will run at the first rain on January 20th. From that point on we all will need to be save from our rescuers, just as New Orleans needed to be rescued from FEMA.
We just watched the Olympics which is the ultimate competition in a pure form. and how we are to live together on this earth. Of greater importance, it is about humanity and politicians who try to polish their image in a thousand places because they want to milk a few votes, stand on a very warped platform, leaving it crystal clear, that either we win or they win. Susan, don't put your dancing shoes on yet either!
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Posted By:Philip Dec at August 25, 2008 3:57 PM (Suggest Removal) Yes, Concerned Community Member, It has become a joke which isn't funny. Probably one of the main reasons so many Americans stay home on election day. Boycotting what so many consider a farce. "Chosing" between two Establishment picks that will keep plundering workers as the "Investment Class" (insiders who know exactly where to place their money) continue to prosper: while income stagnates for many, and lower income people (not on welfare) get clubbed over the head with criminally high heating fuel prices and the soaring cost of nutritious food. Some loaves of Borealis bread now cost SEVEN dollars a loaf! Thanks to the gangsters who have inflated the cost of these companies doing business. Before energy costs skyrocketed, the same bread was selling for about $4.00 a loaf. Sure someone can "always make their own," but why should this excellent quality bread continue to soar out of the financial reach of so many who used to enjoy it (and need the nutrition); and become only affordable to the affluent?
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Posted By:NightCrawler at August 25, 2008 8:04 PM (Suggest Removal) Gee Philip, I've never heard of "Borealis" bread. Even at $4.00 a loaf, it's still out of my price range. So do you put bree or caviar on it? I prefer Wal Mart Great Value bread for a buck a loaf. It still fits nicely around my Great Value balony.
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Posted By:Philip Dec at August 27, 2008 9:59 AM (Suggest Removal) Have you ever heard of Hannaford? They carry the bread I referred to, NC. I bought and enjoyed it because it has a simple list of ingredients that doesn't take a scientist to decipher. Since I don't waste what little money I have on cigarettes, and I don't drink alcohol: spending more on nutritious bread is within my budget. It makes more sense to me to make the best nutritional choices possible; than to eat recklessly and expect others to collectively pay for my own folly when I get sick. As an independent, I oppose (just in case you're interested) both the collectivist plans of the Progressives and the Republicans when it comes to "health care." Socialized medicine as well as the "conservative" collectivism of making everyone purchase "insurance." Americans are being poisoned by fluoridation (nofluoride.com), MSG (google: russell blaylock MD), mercury fillings (google: amalgam poisoning), and flu shots (google: flu shot dangers) "Insurance" companies make zero effort to stop this poisoning of the American people. So, NC (regarding your post at 8:04 PM), Americans are on their own. Which brings us right back to eating nutritious food; so that one does not get sick in the first place. Four dollar a loaf bread doesn't shock me compared to the daily cost of being sick, and treated by Establishment medicine ("the Sickness Industry") That cost can exceed $500 a day! Eating nutritionally worthless bread, at $1 a loaf, may cost you more than you expected. The reason for my original post was to show how thieves inflating the cost of fuel effects everyone who purchases food. Especially nutritious food. I'm glad to see that someone thought my post was worthy enough to place it on Google for more people to view. I can't imagine who would do such a thing considering all of the more interesting messages that I have posted at sunjournal.com If you're interested in staying healthy, you should see the "Diseases Don't Just Happen!" video by Dr. Lorraine Day M.D. (drday.com) Dr. Day contends that Americans are bringing most of their sickness on themselves; and that "sickness" is big business. Just like perpetual war. She and I agree on that issue as well.
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