Forecasting immigration is difficult, city leaders say.
By Scott Taylor
Staff Writer

LEWISTON – Somali immigration remains steady with about 12 people seeking assistance each month.

A few Somalis have left for jobs and housing in Portland, so the number – about 1,100 – is the same as in September. Assistant City Administrator Phil Nadeau said Tuesday that he has no indication the population is due to change.

“It’s always possible that there will be more arrivals,” Nadeau said. “But to say we have a fix on it, that’s a mistake.”

Somalis have been arriving in Lewiston at a much slower rate, compared to previous years. Before September 2002, the city’s General Assistance office was serving between 40 and 60 new residents per month, and most of them were Somali.

The number of new residents coming through the office dropped to about 12 per month after September 2002.

“What we’ve seen now is almost the complete opposite of the previous year,” Nadeau said.

But the reasons for the drop and whether it’s a pattern remain to be seen, he said. “It could a short-term response to the national economy, or it could the lousy weather Maine’s been having. It could be unemployment rates. Who knows?”

Lewiston’s supply of housing is one limiting factor, Nadeau said.

Local Somali elder Abdirizak Mahboub said he knew of three or four Somali families who have left Lewiston this winter after finding housing in Portland.

“That was a function of having a job in Portland, and finding a place to live where you work,” Mahboub said. “I don’t think it indicates anything else, and I doubt that it’s anything alarming.”

Rumor mill

Nadeau has heard rumors that a number of Somalis are planning to come to Lewiston this summer. He’s also heard rumors that many are leaving.

“But we have no evidence of any mass exodus, either,” Nadeau said. “If anything, it looks like the numbers are holding steady.”

But that is only a guess, based on the number of new Somalis who have visited the city’s assistance offices, Nadeau said. Not everyone who requests financial help from the city gets it, and many don’t visit the city offices at all.

“To say that you can wrap numbers around this subject, I think that negates everything this community has been through in the past two years,” Nadeau said. “There is much more to this than numbers.”

staylor@sunjournal.com