WASHINGTON – While President Bush’s big ticket agenda is backed by what he calls “political capital,” events are already shrinking his account.

American deaths in Iraq, mounting criticism of Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, and complaints by some congressional Republicans have produced so-so approval ratings for Bush, less than a month before he is sworn in for a second term.

Ratings around 50 percent, lower than previous re-elected presidents, won’t help the president as he seeks to revamp Social Security, redo the tax code, or restrict lawsuit damage awards.

“He may have a big agenda, but the public’s agenda is Iraq,” CNN analyst William Schneider said.

He and others say Bush’s second term could rise or fall with Iraq, amid increasing anxiety over attacks such as the one on an American military base in Mosul that claimed 22 lives.

Some White House officials noted that few people expected much of Bush four years ago after a disputed election in which he lost the popular vote. Then came four tax cuts, an education bill, prescription drug legislation, intelligence reform, and military action in Afghanistan and Iraq.

“We accomplished many big things in the first term, when people thought we couldn’t get them done,” White House press secretary Scott McClellan said. “The second term hasn’t started yet.”

When it does, officials say, their governing and political strategies won’t be dictated by the day-to-day approval ratings.

“You know, polls change,” Bush himself said last week, responding to a reporter’s question about Iraq. “Polls go up. Polls go down.”

The problem, analysts say, is that congressional Democrats, as well as a few Republicans, can be emboldened by the perception that Bush is losing political strength.

Bush’s critics began taking aim when homeland secretary nominee Bernard Kerik withdrew amid allegations of extra-marital affairs and unsavory business connections.

Now the target is Rumsfeld, given what critics call his indifferent comments about a lack of troops and armored vehicles in Iraq. The criticism seems to be resonating with the public, many of them telling pollsters recently that they favored Rumsfeld’s ouster.

Things don’t figure to get any easier in the weeks ahead. Officials have all but predicted more attacks in the run-up to Iraqi elections of June, although they add that representative government should help quell insurgent violence.

In the meantime, Rumsfeld critics include prominent conservatives and Republicans, ranging from the editors of The Weekly Standard to potential presidential candidates John McCain and Chuck Hagel.

A few Republicans, perhaps mindful that Bush has run his last political race, have balked at other parts of the president’s agenda.

Some, including House Judiciary Committee chairman James Sensenbrenner, R-Wis., tried to block the recently approved intelligence bill because it did not address immigration and border issues. Conservatives have characterized Bush’s temporary guest worker program as amnesty.

Bush supporters point out that, despite all the talk of dissident Republicans, Congress approved the intelligence reorganization, and Bush signed it.

Congressional Republicans are also debating a number of ideas on Social Security. Some legislators, such as Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, have proposed raising the amount of annual income subject to the Social Security tax, though that suggestion seems to run afoul of Bush’s pledge to not to raise taxes.

Congressional Democrats can also be counted on to make Bush pay a price for his agenda.

“It’s going to be tough for him in the new year,” said Karlyn Bowman, who studies polls for Washington-based American Enterprise Institute. “He’s got a very ambitious agenda ,and you’ve still got a country that’s pretty evenly divided.”

Bush’s most recent approval rating, as measured by the CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll, is 49 percent. That is lower than any post-World War II president so soon after re-election.

“There is no second honeymoon,” Schneider said, offering up a central explanation: Iraq: “That’s the key to the whole thing.”

Analysts and Republicans pointed out that Iraq could cut two ways; pacifying the country would replenish presidential capital, strengthening his investment in major domestic challenges.

Few people underestimate Bush, given his legislative success after his disputed win over Al Gore. It’s not like the president lacks weapons, analysts said, with solid Republican majorities in both houses of Congress.

“The president was just re-elected with a strong victory,” McClellan said. “The American people spoke very clearly in support of the agenda he has outlined for the second term.”