NEW YORK (AP) – Hear that hiss? That may be the sound of air starting to come out of the housing bubble.
On Thursday, a survey of housing lenders showed that the rate on 30-year mortgages rose above 6 percent for the first time since March. While it’s bounced above that psychologically important threshold a few times in the last year, only to drop back, analysts say this time the direction looks to be headed in one direction – higher.
For prospective homebuyers, that means bidding adieu to rates that hadn’t been seen since the president was named Eisenhower and Elvis’ music was hitting airwaves for the first time. And these increased borrowing costs are likely to put a brake on the bidding wars that have stoked astounding housing gains and may even slow consumer spending that has fueled economic growth.
Realtors are already reporting a decline in demand. “It is going to definitely cause more of a slowdown,” said Brenda Binczewski, a realtor at Carlson GMAC Real Estate in Palmer, Mass., who said she has seen a drop in business since July and has not had multiple offers for a home in three or four months.
In raising the overnight bank lending rate last month a quarter point to 3.75 percent, Federal Reserve policy makers expressed their concerns about inflation. And earlier this week, meeting minutes from those Fed officials hinted at more interest rate increases.
These concerns have been noticed in the broader financial markets, especially the U.S. Treasury securities market where interest rates have risen, tugging mortgage rates with them.
According to Freddie Mac, the U.S. housing agency which sells guarantees for home loans, this week’s 6.03 percent average for 30-year mortgages is the second highest level of the year. Thirty-year rates were at 6.04 percent in the week of March 3.
“The most likely pattern is for mortgage rates to gradually rise over time,” said Frank Nothaft, chief economist at Freddie Mac. He added that “will translate into somewhat weaker demand for housing, lower home sales volume and lower house price growth.”
Douglas Duncan, chief economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association, an industry trade group said that “because of increased concerns about inflationary pressures, it will stay above 6 percent.”
Low mortgage rates have supported consumer spending on goods and services – which accounts for two-thirds of the nation’s gross domestic product – because low borrowing costs allowed home owners to draw money from properties that had appreciated in value.
Also, the steady rise in the cost of money is sure to limit home price appreciation because buyers won’t be able to as readily bid up prices on homes for sale.
Freddie Mac’s Nothaft pointed out that he does not expect a sharp drop in home prices or home sales because the rise in mortgage rates has been gradual. “It would be different if we had a spike in mortgage rates,” said Nothaft.
Duncan noted that some home buyers may resort to adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs) which initially have lower borrowing costs.
“As fixed rates rise, ARMs will become a bigger factor,” said Stephen LaDue, president of Affiliated Mortgage of Wauwatosa, Wisconsin. “The rate of increase in home values will slow or will start to stagnate,” he said.
But that holds risks down the road for buyers. In its survey, Freddie Mac found that adjustable rate mortgages, which are linked to one-year Treasury rates, were offered at 4.85 percent this week, up from 4.77 percent a week ago and 4.01 percent 12 months ago. Further interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve, which are expected, probably will push ARM rates even higher, analysts said.
At the same time, a few consumers prospecting for properties — especially those prequalified by lenders — may be spurred into action by the rising interest rates.
“People may start buying before it (the mortgage rate) goes up any more,” Binczewksi said. “They would make offers because they have rate locks. Now, with rates increasing, they won’t want to lose rate locks.”
Associated Press Economics Writer Martin Crutsinger in Washington, D.C., contributed to this report.
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