SAN FRANCISCO – Despite concerns that an ongoing credit crunch will put the pinch on consumers this holiday season, experts still expect shoppers to open their wallets online.

Holiday shopping on the Web is expected to top the $30 billion mark this year, according to a pair of forecasts. That would represent an increase of more than 20 percent from last year’s totals.

Signs have been encouraging so far. According to data from comScore, the first 18 days of November saw total online-retail spending reach above $7 billion – up 17 percent from the same period last year.

The market-research firm warned, however, that figures for the later part of the month “are likely to be better indicators of how the remainder of the season will play out.”

On Friday, consumers flocked to stores to take advantage traditional “Black Friday” sales, in which many retailers offered deep discounts on popular items to lure shoppers.

The turnout may lead to a strong “Cyber Monday” on Nov. 26. The term was coined on the theory that consumers returning to their offices on the Monday following Thanksgiving flock to the sites of companies such as Amazon.com Inc., eBay Inc. and Overstock.com Inc. to find items they were unable to get in stores over the weekend.

“Consumers will continue to shift more of their holiday gift spending from stores to sites this year,” Jeffrey Grau, a senior analyst for market-research firm eMarketer, wrote in a Nov. 15 report.

According to data from comScore, the first 18 days of November saw total online-retail spending reach above $7 billion – up 17 percent from the same period last year.

He said that the figures show the trend toward online shopping “will insulate retail e-commerce from the economic jitters expected to dampen retail industry sales during the critical months of November and December.”

According to eMarketer data, online holiday sales are expected to total $31 billion this year compared with $26.2 billion last year.

The numbers can be looked at different ways, though. One is that online retailers are continuing to entice consumers to shop via computer rather than in stores. Yet overall retail spending for the holiday season is expected to grow only 4 percent this year, according to the National Retail Federation, which would represent the lowest growth rate since 2002.

In addition, even online shoppers seem to be feeling the pinch from the housing crisis. The growth rate of online holiday sales is below the 25.4 percent rate seen last year, eMarketer data show.

“The current macro environment could provide headwinds across the consumer landscape, and e-commerce companies may see some margin pressure as competition increases,” Malindi Davies of CIBC World Markets wrote in a Nov. 19 report.

Davies further observed that “promotions appear heavy this holiday season, including free shipping, keyword buys and direct mail/e-mail.”

In his report, Grau wrote that online shoppers have been altering their buying patterns, with some doing their shopping even before the main season begins in November, with others procrastinating and making purchases the week before Christmas.

Forrester Research, in another study, predicted that online holiday sales would hit the $33 billion mark, up 21 percent from last year. Its results were based on a survey of 2,500 online consumers.

The survey found that apparel and accessories would be one of the most popular categories this year.

The Forrester study bodes well for retailers such as Amazon.com that offer free shipping. More than 60 percent of the survey’s respondents said that they favor sites that offer free shipping this season.

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AP-NY-11-23-07 1747EST