HOLLYWOOD – Like a rolling blackout, Hollywood is shutting down.
Fallout from Friday’s collapse of negotiations for a new contract between writers and studios will in the weeks and months ahead leave audiences with dwindling entertainment choices. If the strike by the Writers Guild of America, now five weeks long, contiues, it’s also poised to affect the Awards season, the annual ritual of self-congratulation and promotion that runs through the winter.
And in short order both the television networks and movie studios will begin to suffer financial pain, as the lack of original content causes viewers to flee.
“It’s a dangerous time for the industry,” said producer Richard Zanuck, who ran the studio at Fox for nearly a decade. “That doesn’t mean that the companies have to give away the store to keep things alive or just stay afloat, but I think it’s just a very dangerous time.”
Both sides left the table Friday with a lot of rancor, and no new talks are scheduled. Further complicating any resolution is the looming prospect that the Directors Guild of America, whose contract expires in June, could reach an early agreement with the studios.
From movie stars to hair stylists, the Hollywood food-chain economy is highly integrated, with a disruption at one end causing dislocation at the other. Without original episodes of TV series or movie scripts ready to shoot, the supply of new content will quickly dwindle, leaving audiences with nothing to watch except reruns, reality TV shows and, as happened following the 1988 strike, a wave of disappointing films.
Although the studios are banking that they can hold out for at least six months, the long-term effect could be enormous not only for the entertainment industry, but also for the region. Hollywood’s stream of products contributes nearly 7 percent – an estimated $30 billion annually to L.A. County’s $442 billion economy, according to the Los Angeles County Economic Development Corp. If the strike continues into next year, which seems possible, it will have more than a $1 billion impact on the local economy, the development group estimates.
Meanwhile, the klieg ights are being turned off in the entertainment industry.
First to disappear were new episodes of Letterman, and Leno, Stewart and Colbert. Then scripted shows from “The Office” to “Desperate Housewives” stopped filming.
Over the last several weeks, the Writers Guild of America walkout also has forced the postponement of several prominent motion pictures. Because their producers did not think their screenplays were ready for filming, Ron Howard’s “Angels & Demons,” Oliver Stone’s “Pinkville,” and Mira Nair’s “Shantaram” all have been forced to postpone production, and filming the next installment of the “James Bond” franchise could be in jeopardy.
More immediately, the strike’s impact on such televised events as The Golden Globes, The Grammys, The People’s Choice Awards, The Screen Actors Guild Awards, and of course, the Oscars, is now in limbo.
A prolonged strike could cost the television networks tens if not hundreds of millions of dollars in lost advertising revenue. Fox is the only broadcast network to post larger audiences thus far this season, and next month it will bring back its ratings juggernaut “American Idol,” which doesn’t rely on guild writers. The network has decided to keep its drama “24” off the air until it can complete a full season, and the fate of ABC’s “Lost,” is yet to be determined.
The current writers strike could also hasten the departure of more advertising dollars from the networks to the Internet. Cable channels benefited enormously from the 22-week 1988 writers strike, attracting viewers who were desperate for something new to watch.
The networks could suffer even further audience erosion if they air months of reruns and less-popular reality shows. They would face the prospect of returning millions of dollars to advertisers for prime-time commercial spots that the advertisers ordered in the spring.
Although top media executives have told Wall Street that financial damage from the strike would be minimal, that optimistic view fades as the strike drags on. Jack Myers, publisher of media industry trade report jackmyers.com, says there hasn’t been any “meaningful losses” yet, but estimated that the networks could collectively lose $600 million if the strike continues into next summer. The broadcast networks alone sell more than $9.3 billion a year in advertising.
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