The last month of the campaign comes at a time of domestic uncertainty greater than any presidential election since the Great Depression, when the nation gave its mandate to Franklin Delano Roosevelt. The nation also is experiencing a sense of urgency similar to World War II, when Roosevelt again won a commanding majority.

But it’s different this time. This crisis is without consensus on who should lead. We’re headed for our third consecutive close presidential election. What does history tell us about how Mainers predict such an outcome?

Maine once exemplified the slogan, “As Maine goes, so goes the nation.” It was first popularized in 1840, when the state elected a Whig governor in September, two months before the country elected its first Whig president.

Then, starting with the election of Abraham Lincoln in 1860, Maine embodied its “so goes the nation” status in 15 of 18 presidential elections. But in the seven closest presidential elections since 1916, we’ve backed the loser.

No other state has such a record. Maine still has, then, a correlation to national results, but an inverse one.

A look at these seven races shows how Maine set itself apart from the national results, and illustrates the interplay interplay with the state’s balloting for other offices.

1916

In 1916, President Wilson went to bed thinking he’d lost re-election, not just because opponent Charles Evans Hughes beat him in Maine, but also because Hughes had done well elsewhere.

Late returns showing an unexpected upset by Wilson in California gave him a razor-edge triumph, though. The Maine presidential vote was nevertheless consistent with how the state voted for its offices, two months earlier. The state elected Republicans as governor, U.S. Senator and Legislature, after a brief reign of Democrats.

1948

The famous Chicago Tribune headline faux pas “Dewey Beats Truman” held true for Maine. Tom Dewey – a lookalike for the mustached groom atop a wedding cake – won the state by 14 percent. In the rest of the country, though, results were different. Harry Truman won by four points.

1960

Maine was President Nixon’s sixth strongest supporting state in 1960, bestowing 57 percent of its votes on President Eisenhower’s vice-president. John F. Kennedy, though, narrowly won the national vote.

This year was the first Maine held its state and Congressional elections – which had been in September – in November, the same day as presidential elections. It was, like 1916, a comeback year for Republicans, who won all five of the major state races, even though the party had lost nearly all of them since 1954.

1968

In 1968, Maine would have joined the nation in re-electing Nixon, had Hubert Humphrey not tapped popular Sen. Ed Muskie as his running mate. Muskie’s coattails helped sweep two incumbent Democrats to re-election for the U.S. House. Republicans kept weakened control of the Legislature in 1968, a historic body that would enact a state income tax, now Maine’s leading source of revenue.

1976

In 1976, Maine gave a one-point victory to President Ford, who lost to Democrat Jimmy Carter by two percent nationally. Ticket-splitting was Maine’s order of the day that year. Maine voted for a Republican president, awarded Democrats two of three Congressional contests, re-elected a GOP state Senate and kept Democrat John Martin to lead a Democratic House.

2000

The 2000 race, the closest electoral vote ever, also saw Maine parting company with the national outcome. In voting for Al Gore, however, the state was aligned with the national popular vote. That Maine again failed to pick a party favorite was illustrated by the state Senate, which evenly split between the GOP and the Democrats, 17 apiece.

2004

And Maine was out of step with national results in 2004. The state went to Democratic Sen. John Kerry by nine points, while the country-at-large re-elected President Bush. Characteristic of national declines in split-ticket voting, however, Maine followed its Democratic vote for president with electing Democrats in the two Congressional races and preferred Democratic state legislative candidates.

There are three reasons Maine’s votes matter more than most. First is the electoral college. Smaller-population states like Maine have more electoral votes per-capita than larger ones. Second, television ads cost less here than more populous states. Third, Maine – especially the northern district – is seen as a competitive arena.

Look for the major parties to make a play for the state’s votes. Indeed, John McCain’s campaign announced this week they would reinforce their efforts in Maine, in lieu of other contentious states, like Michigan.

This proves our votes still count.

But recent polls in Maine are inconclusive on the coming presidential race, though many show Sen. Barack Obama with a slim lead. Will the jinx of voting for the loser in another close presidential election recur? Certainly the political parties must not have faith in it.

If they did, they would seek to lose, rather than win in Maine!

Paul H. Mills is a Farmington attorney well known for his analyses and historical understanding of Maine’s political scene. He can be reached by e-mail: [email protected].