WASHINGTON – Congressional Democrats are heading into the campaign’s final weeks with confidence that they will not only hold their majorities, but add to them.

The party is expecting to gain members in both houses Nov. 4 and is armed with large war chests and a favorable political climate. John McCain’s selection in late August of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his running mate had given Republicans renewed enthusiasm, but the financial crisis has shifted much of that energy back toward the Democrats.

Beating history

History says this election should be a Republican rebound. Trends show that a party that makes gains in the House and Senate, as the Democrats did in 2006, is likely to lose seats in the following election. Instead, Democrats appear poised to gain more seats.

“The national landscape hasn’t really changed that much (since the last election),” said Nathan Gonzales, political editor for the nonpartisan Rothenberg Political Report. “It hasn’t gotten better for Republicans.”

The number of open seats, such as that of retiring Rep. Jerry Weller, R-Ill., also hurts the GOP’s chances. Senate Republicans are defending 23 seats, compared with 12 for the Democrats. Heading into the fall, the Rothenberg Political Report listed 16 competitive House seats – 14 held by Republicans.

Fast-changing climate

Senate Republicans had showed a new energy following their convention.

Sen. John Ensign of Nevada, chairman of the Republican National Senatorial Committee, told reporters in September that he was more optimistic about the party’s hopes to retain most of its seats, and party leaders called Palin a game-changer. And as Nov. 4 nears, analysts have declared few Senate races a lock.

But several Republican incumbents, such as Sen. John Sununu in New Hampshire, are facing tough challengers, and Sen. Ted Stevens, R-Alaska, is on trial fighting corruption charges. Democrats appear likely to snatch Senate seats in Virginia and New Mexico, and even Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., is facing a stiff challenge.

For Senate Democrats, now with a 51-49 working majority – achieved by caucusing with two independents – reaching the 60-seat plateau for a filibuster-proof majority is becoming increasingly conceivable in the wake of the country’s financial crisis. Democratic candidates are reporting boosts in the polls, and the Rothenberg Political Report’s Stuart Rothenberg recently predicted a Democratic pickup of six to nine seats.

The one tight race for a Democratic-held Senate seat is in Louisiana. Analysts say Sen. Mary Landrieu’s base in New Orleans was hit hard as residents moved out of the state after Hurricane Katrina three years ago, but her fundraising and Senate record have boosted her chances since then.

“She’s running the best campaign she’s ever run there,” said Jennifer Duffy, senior editor of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, which tracks congressional races. “(But) Republicans will put time and money into that race because it’s their only shot” at winning a Senate seat held by a Democrat.

Campaign momentum

On the House side, recent estimates put Democratic gains as high as 20 to 30 seats. Democratic leaders say they believe Sen. Barack Obama’s campaign, along with an aggressive candidate recruiting strategy, could push several of the closer races over the top.

“We’re confident we can beat history,” said Rep. Chris Van Hollen of Maryland, chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, which works to elect Democrats to the House.

Republican candidates aren’t giving up. The party had been focused on the issue of energy and drilling heading into September, but has shifted to a message of low taxes.

“Voters know they want to blame someone, but I don’t think they know yet who to blame,” said Rebecca Fisher, the Republican National Senatorial Committee’s spokeswoman.

Cash situation

The cash situation, too, favors the Democrats. At the end of August, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee had $33.7 million in cash on hand, compared with the National Republican Senatorial Committee’s $26.8 million, according to the Center for Responsive Politics.

On the House side, the National Republican Congressional Committee had $14.4 million on hand, compared with its Democratic counterpart’s $54 million.