OXFORD HILLS — The state-wide unemployment rate has remained relatively flat over the past year, even as Oxford Hills has witnessed a slight decrease in unemployment. 

The U.S. Department of Labor’s Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that statewide, the seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate in July was 7.6 percent –  exactly the same as July 2011.

The state’s unemployment rate dropped to 7 percent in December before rising again during the spring and summer, according to the Bureau. 

Glenn Mills, chief economist for the Maine Department of Labor Center for Workforce Research and Information says that Maine’s situation isn’t unusual.

“We’ve not had the net job growth that the nation has, but we also don’t have the population growth that the nation has,” explains Mills.  “So adjusting for that, we’re doing just about the same.”

Even though the national unemployment rate has dipped, Mills explains, the the national share of population employed has not increased – the reduction in unemployment may be the result of people leaving the labor force rather than new jobs.

Mills says the CWRI doesn’t seasonally adjust for anything below the state-wide unemployment average; at the local level, numbers can quickly become skewed when adjusted.

In Oxford County, the unemployment rate has also remained fairly flat –  CWRI reports that the July unemployment rate is 9.3 percent – exactly the same as a year ago. 

According to Mills, the similarity in the percentage is only a coincidence, but the numbers haven’t actually changed that much.

In Oxford Hills, the average unemployment rate in July 2011 was less –  8.8 percent.

The Bridgton-Paris Labor Market Area, which includes all seven Oxford Hills Communities, saw the annual, not seasonally-adjusted average unemployment rate fall from 10.3 in 2009 to 9.6 in 2011.

Because the rate isn’t seasonally-adjusted, Mills says it’s not accurate to use a high rate of unemployment in February to a lower rate in July or August, as proof of decreasing unemployment.

“With seasonally-adjusted data, it’s always lower in the late summer than it is in the winter,” he explains.

However, looking at monthly data from July – the month with the second-lowest unemployment numbers of the year –  shows the unemployment rate dropping from 9.8 percent in 2009 to 8.6 percent this summer, with annual decreases in between.

Similarly, monthly data from February, one of the highest unemployment months, from 2009-2012 also shows a decline, from 11.6 percent in 2009 to 10.1 percent this year.

Although the opening of the Oxford Casino in June might explain some of the boost, Mills explains it will probably not have a huge impact on unemployment at the local and county level.

“Keep in mind that the casino is very commutable for most people who live in Androscoggin County, and quite a few people who live in Cumberland County as well,” Mills says.

“Unemployment rates are based on where you live … it would tend to have an impact on all three areas.”