Presidential candidate Mitt Romney is poised to win two of Maine’s electoral votes if the results of a poll released Thursday hold true through the Nov. 6 election.

Maine’s 2nd Congressional District in the northern part of the state supports Romney over President Barack Obama by five percentage points, 49 percent to 44 percent, a result that according to a story by Politico is outside the NMB Research poll’s margin of error. On a statewide basis, Obama leads 48 percent to 44 percent.

Maine is one of only two states in the country that splits its electoral vote by congressional district. If Romney wins in the north, he would receive two of Maine’s four electoral votes, which given the closeness of the race could conceivably tip the results in Romney’s favor. According to a New York Times polling analysis blog called FiveThirtyEight, the probability that Maine’s second congressional district could decide the election stood at 0.7 percent as of Thursday, a scenario that ranked 10th as a probable outcome among battleground states. The likelihood that the electoral vote could be decided in first-place Ohio, by comparison, was about 44 percent, according to the blog. Maine has not voted for a Republican in a presidential election since 1988.

Politico reports that Glen Bolger of NMB Research polled 500 likely voters on October 7 and 8, giving the poll a margin of error of about 4 percent.


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