With Opening Day on Thursday, it’s time to make some bold predictions about the Major League Baseball season.

While not quite on the level of Cincinnati Reds first baseman Joey Votto predicting an alien invasion will spur his rebuilding team to an improbable World Series title, a few of these predictions are a bit more out there than your typical preseason prognostications. While rooted in analysis and based, in part, on last year’s performances, they’re supposed to be more fun than serious.

Daulton Varsho, traded to the Toronto Blue Jays during the offseason, tied for first among outfielders in defensive runs saved last season. AP Photo/Gerald Herbert

TORONTO WINS IT ALL

Why it could happen: The Blue Jays went 46-28 – a 101-win pace – after firing manager Charlie Montoyo in July and replacing him with bench coach John Schneider. Toronto upgraded its outfield defense by trading Lourdes Gurriel Jr. to the Arizona Diamondbacks for Daulton Varsho and signing center fielder Kevin Kiermaier. The 26-year-old Varsho tied for first among outfielders in defensive runs saved, and the 32-year-old Kiermaier is a three-time Gold Glove winner. Toronto’s pitching staff, led by Alek Manoah and Kevin Gausman, stands to benefit. FanGraphs gives Toronto the sixth-best odds to win the World Series.

Why it probably won’t: Toronto said goodbye to slugger Teoscar Hernández, who hit 57 home runs over the past two years. The Blue Jays’ potent offense, which led the majors in hitting and finished fourth in runs last year, could take a step back, especially if Vladimir Guerrero Jr. doesn’t return to his MVP-worthy numbers of 2021 and free agent acquisition Brandon Belt can’t stay healthy. The AL East figures to be among baseball’s most competitive divisions, making the path to the postseason and a potential first World Series title since 1993 difficult. The Blue Jays’ bullpen could be a weakness.

ORIOLES MAKE PLAYOFFS

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Why it could happen: Manager Brandon Hyde’s club was one of the biggest surprises of 2022, finishing three games over .500 after Baltimore lost at least 108 games in each of its previous three full seasons. Rookie catcher Adley Rutschman was a big part of the Orioles’ resurgence, and top prospect Gunnar Henderson, who more than held his own after an August call-up, is slated to start every day at third base. Grayson Rodriguez, one of the top pitching prospects in baseball, is poised to open the season in the rotation.

Why it probably won’t: For a team with aspirations of making a major leap forward after a long and painful rebuild, the Orioles didn’t take any big swings in free agency. While the future is bright, a last-place finish in a formidable division wouldn’t be surprising if Henderson, Rodriguez and the other inexperienced players on the roster struggle. FanGraphs gives the Orioles a 9.1 percent chance to make the postseason.

Shohei Ohtani is greeted by Los Angeles Angels teammate Mike Trout after hitting a home run against Detroit on Sept. 7 in Anaheim, Calif. AP Photo/Ashley Landis

ANGELS WIN THE AL WEST

Why it could happen: With Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout among the favorites to combine for their third AL MVP award in the last five years, the Angels are eyeing their first playoff berth since 2014, which is tied with the Detroit Tigers for MLB’s longest postseason drought. Trout hit 40 home runs in 119 games last season. Ohtani would’ve won his second consecutive MVP award if not for Aaron Judge’s historic year. Third baseman Anthony Rendon, who has been limited to 105 games over the past two seasons, is healthy – for now – and poised to bat cleanup in a lineup that added Hunter Renfroe and Brandon Drury.

Why it probably won’t: The defending World Series champion Houston Astros are still the Astros and are the favorites to win another division title. The Seattle Mariners, who ended what had been MLB’s longest playoff drought last season, look like postseason contenders again, and the Rangers should be more competitive after a busy offseason. The Angels’ young starting pitchers are promising but don’t have long track records of success.

BRAVES OR METS DISAPPOINT

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Why it could happen: The Braves lost shortstop Dansby Swanson in free agency and will start Orlando Arcia in his place after sending prospects Vaughn Grissom and Braden Shewmake to the minors. It’s a lot to expect NL rookie of the year Michael Harris II and Spencer Strider, the runner-up, to repeat their success of last year. The Mets could disappoint if their star-studded pitching rotation starts showing its age. Max Scherzer will turn 39 in July, Justin Verlander is 40, José Quintana is 34, and Carlos Carrasco is 36. New York already lost lights-out closer Edwin Díaz to a knee injury suffered in the World Baseball Classic.

Why it probably won’t: Most projection systems give Atlanta and New York a better than 90 percent chance to reach the postseason. Both teams are so loaded with talent, including young prospects poised to step in if needed, that an injury or two isn’t going to derail them.

Free agent outfield acquisition Jesse Winker could be in store for a big season with Milwaukee after a down year in Seattle. AP Photo/Matt York

BREWERS LEAD MLB IN WINS

Why it could happen: In Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff, the Brewers boast one of the best pitching duos in the majors, and Freddy Peralta is a solid No. 3. Rowdy Tellez hit 35 homers last year, and prospects Brice Turang, Sal Frelick and Garrett Mitchell appear ready to contribute. Free agent outfield acquisition Jesse Winker could be in store for a big season after a down year in Seattle.

Why it probably won’t: The Brewers are projected to win 84 and 87 games, per FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus, and both project at least 10 teams to finish with more wins than Milwaukee. The offense could struggle if Winker doesn’t bounce back.

CARDINALS FINISH BELOW .500

Why it could happen: The Cardinals outperformed expectations to win 93 games and the division title last year, and while they’ve got the lineup to do it again, the starting rotation is suspect. Adam Wainwright, who turns 42 in August, posted a 4.69 ERA in 14 starts after the all-star break, and he will start the season on the injured list with a groin strain. Jordan Montgomery pitched well after being acquired from the New York Yankees at the trade deadline and Miles Mikolas is coming off his best season since 2018, but Jack Flaherty and Steven Matz combined for only 18 starts because of injuries.

Why it probably won’t: Outperforming expectations is what the Cardinals do. They’ve exceeded Baseball Prospectus’s PECOTA projections for their win total in nine straight years, and if that trend continues, put them down for at least 86 wins. St. Louis has finished above .500 each of the past 15 years.


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