Control of the Maine House of Representatives and Senate for the next two years could come down to a few hundred votes scattered across a dozen or so districts this November.
The Portland Press Herald/Maine Sunday Telegram identified battleground districts by analyzing seats without incumbents running for reelection and previous election results, including the 2022 legislative races and the 2020 presidential election. Additional districts were identified through interviews with party insiders.
Here are some races to watch.
MAINE SENATE
Democrats currently hold a nine-seat majority in the 35-member Senate. Each party is leaving four seats open without an incumbent to defend them.
• Topping the list of seats that could be flipped from one party to another is Democratic Senate President Troy Jackson’s District 1 seat in Aroostook County. It has been trending toward Republicans in recent elections and is located in the more rural and conservative 2nd Congressional District, which has voted for former President Donald Trump in the last two elections.
Jackson fought off a spirited challenge two years ago against Republican Sue Bernard, a former state representative and former spokesperson for the Catholic Diocese. Jackson won with 52% of the vote – a margin of about 760 votes.
Bernard is running again – this time against Democrat Vaughn McLaughlin, a longtime teacher and coach.
• Democrats are looking to flip the District 10 seat, which includes Brewer, Bucksport and Hampden.
Republican incumbent Peter Lyford lost in the primary to Rep. David Haggan, R-Hampden. Will Parmacek, executive director of the Maine Senate Democratic Committee, pointed to the Democratic candidate in that race as one of the party’s contenders.
“In District 10, Michele LaBree Daniels, a union member and Brewer City Council member, has a solid chance of flipping a seat that (Rep. Jared Golden, D-2nd District) previously won,” Parmacek said.
• Close races are also expected in two Augusta-area seats – one held by each party. Neither has an incumbent running.
One of the most competitive may be District 15, which is currently held by Republican Sen. Matt Pouliot of Augusta.
Two sitting state representatives – Democrat Rep. Raegan LaRochelle, of Augusta, and Republican Rep. Dick Bradstreet, of Vassalboro – are vying for the seat in a district that narrowly went to Trump in 2020.
Democrats are playing defense in neighboring District 16, where Democrat David LaFountaine is not seeking reelection.
Republican Rep. Scott Cyrway, of Albion, who held the District 16 seat for eight years before being termed out in 2022, is running against Democrat Nathaniel White. It’s a district carried by President Biden in 2020, but Cyrway showed that same year that he can cut against the national political environment.
• District 20 in Auburn is also in play for both parties.
Sen. Eric Brakey, R-Auburn, won the seat by fewer than 200 votes in 2022 against Democrat Bettyann Sheats. Brakey is not seeking reelection, and Sheats is running again. But this time around, it’s a three-way race with former state Rep. Bruce Bickford, R-Auburn, and independent Dustin Ward.
It’s one of five three-way races in both chambers this cycle, but ranked choice voting will not be used because the state constitution says state offices are decided by a plurality. Ranked choice voting can only be used in state primaries, federal elections and in local elections, if enacted by ordinance.
District 20 went to Biden in 2020, which should give Sheats an advantage. But Ward’s presence on the ballot could complicate that calculus.
• Another three-way race will determine the successor for Senate Majority Leader Eloise Vitelli’s seat in District 24, which went to Biden by more than 3,000 votes in 2020.
The District 24 race features Democrat Denise Tepler, of Topsham; Republican Jeffrey Pierce, of Dresden; and independent Suzanne Andresen, of West Bath. It’s a Democratic district, but a three-way contest increases its unpredictability.
MAINE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
Democrats currently have a 12-seat majority in the House of Representatives, controlling 79 seats, while Republicans hold 67 and independents hold two seats. Three seats are vacant.
Of the 151 seats, 35 seats are not being defended by an incumbent. Democrats hold 21 of those open seats, Republicans hold 13, and one is held by an independent.
• Democrats are poised to regain at least one seat in Aroostook County, with longtime Democratic lawmaker John Martin, of Eagle Lake, seeking his 28th – yes, 28th – legislative term.
Martin is seeking the District 1 seat, which is currently held by Rep. Austin Theriault, who is challenging U.S. Rep. Jared Golden in the 2nd Congressional District race.
• One of the most interesting races is taking place in the Winterport area.
District 37 is currently held by Republican Rep. Reagan Paul, who won the open seat two years ago by about 235 votes. That seat was open at the time, because Democrat Scott Cuddy did not seek reelection. Now Cuddy is back, looking to regain his seat.
The two candidates could not have more differing views on the issues, including renewable energy, reproductive rights and labor unions. Paul is a staunch conservative, while Cuddy is a pro-labor Democrat who leans left.
It’s the kind of coastal and coastal-adjacent district that House Minority Leader Billy Bob Faulkingham, R-Winter Harbor, believes Republicans will hold or flip. Others are seats in Warren (District 44), Boothbay (District 48), Lincolnville (District 40) and Woolwich (District 49).
“These are all coastal towns you could see a shift in,” said Faulkingham, who works as a lobsterman. “I think with energy costs, inflation, property tax increases – all these factors, especially when you add in (the) offshore wind issue that’s being pushed by the Democrats, I think we could see a shift in that area.”
• Two well-known opponents are squaring off in a district representing part of Gray and North Yarmouth. Rep. Anne Graham, D-North Yarmouth, won the District 105 seat two years ago, after Republican Sue Austin was termed out. Both are seeking the seat this fall.
Graham and Austin have faced off in the past. In 2008, Austin beat Graham, who turned around and beat Austin four years later when the Republican tried to come back after being termed out.
• District 45 in the Midcoast region is a swing seat.
That seat was held for four terms by independent Jeffrey Evangelos, of Friendship. Democrats picked up that seat after Evangelos was termed out in 2022, but Rep. Clinton Collamore, D-Waldoboro, resigned a few months after his election amid allegations that he committed fraud while qualifying for public funding for his campaign.
Republican Abden Simmons, of Waldoboro, flipped the seat in a special election – a win the Maine Republican Party said was the result of their new embrace of early voting. Now Simmons is seeking reelection against Democrat Jennifer Stone, of Waterboro.
• A number of Sebago Lake region seats are also expected to be battlegrounds, including both seats representing Windham.
Rep. Jane Pringle, D-Windham, is also facing a tough reelection bid in neighboring District 107, a seat she won by about 135 votes two years ago.
She is locked in a three-way race against Republican Mark Cooper, of Windham, and Windham independent Patrick Corey, a former Republican lawmaker who was termed out in 2022 after serving four consecutive terms.
Rep. Barbara Bagshaw, R-Windham, is seeking reelection in District 106. Bagshaw won that seat two years ago by 22 votes in a race that went to a recount. She’s being challenged by Democrat Doris Poland, of Windham, a longtime school bus driver and library technician.
• Another open seat up for grabs is in District 86, where incumbent Rep. Jessica Fay, D-Raymond, is termed out. Republican Rolf Olsen and Democrat Craig Messinger are facing off for that seat. Both are from Raymond.
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