It doesn’t matter if you’re making plans for a dramatic ALCS Game 7 tonight or wondering how in God’s name you’re going to be able to stomach a Phillies/Rays World Series. We’ve already learned two undeniable truths over the last week, regardless of how this column greets you:
First, the world needs less, not more, cowbell. And second, the Tampa Bay Rays are going to be a pain in the Red Sox’ butt for quite a while.
Of course, this is assuming that the Tampa ownership will make the financial commitment necessary to make this so. Early indications, such as their pre-emptive signing of Evan Longoria to a long-term contract, seem to point to that being a given. Some questions linger about a new stadium in the Tampa-St. Pete area, which can be a bit unsettling, but let’s just assume for now that they’re not going to turn into their fellow Floridians, the Marlins, and start selling off their talent at the first whiff of free agency.
The Rays are young and, man, are they talented. Longoria and B.J. Upton aren’t future stars. The path of destruction they left in Chicago and in Boston for the first 4.7 games of the ALCS proved that they have arrived. Holding out for a sophomore slump for Longoria is foolish. Counting on the immature Upton to become a chronic head case under the guidance of manager Joe Maddon is just wishful thinking.
Longoria and Upton are the cornerstones, but the rest of the Rays aren’t exactly the 1962 Mets. Dioner Navarro joined Boston’s Jason Varitek on this year’s American League All-Star squad. Anybody want to put 10 bucks on who gets that honor more from here on out? Carl Crawford can count on having to cancel a few more mid-summer get-aways with the family himself. Akinori Iwamuri is 29, so he’s going to be a Placido Polanco-type pest for a few more years.
The Rays will be putting out quality lineups for years to come. Sorry folks. The days of Steve Cox or Ben Grieve batting clean-up are gone. Now, it would be silly to suggest they are going to mash the ball at the historic rate they have this post-season, but don’t doubt that they will be able to win their share of 12-9 slugfests at Fenway in the future.
The scary thing is, their offense probably won’t have to remain the sledgehammer it has been this October to compete. Unlike, say, the Yankees, Tampa is following the Boston blueprint and banking its staying power on homegrown pitching. In fact, the Rays might be trumping the Sox. The oldest member of their five-man rotation is James Shields, who is 26. Andy Sonnanstine is 25. Scott Kazmir, Matt Garza and Edwin Jackson are 24. Prospect David Price, who may turn out to be the better than all of them, is 22.
With their combination of youth and athleticism, the Rays will be a bigger obstacle to the Red Sox than the Yankees over the next few years.
New York let the farm system that produced its late-90s dynasty rot in favor of signing big-name free agents. While they are paying more attention to player development, the Yankees are still going to try to take short cuts this off-season and fill more holes via free agency. They will get a little younger just by ditching dead wood such as Jason Giambi, but the nucleus is going to look very different in a couple or three years, and with that comes a lot of uncertainty. The Yankees hate uncertainty, so they will just keep buying “proven” talent, and they’ll probably stay old.
Presumably, the heart of the Sox order will include Mike Lowell, David Ortiz and J.D. Drew next year, so they won’t be getting any younger or more athletic, either. There is something to be said for the experience and intangibles they all bring (I can’t believe I just put “J.D. Drew” and “intangibles” in the same sentence). But it’s a fine line between letting these guys lead your team through a pennant race and hanging on to them too long, a la the Celtics with Bird, McHale and Parish.
That is why this may be Theo Epstein’s most difficult off-season yet. He can’t turn his back on the veterans who, let’s face it, set the tone for Thursday’s great comeback with their resilience dating back to 2004. But he has to determine whether David Ortiz’s wrist, Lowell’s hip and Drew’s back are going to become chronic problems, lead to other physical issues or are the harbinger of a dramatic decline in their respective skills.
Epstein may have to consider going after a Mark Teixeira, even if it doesn’t look like he has a spot for him right now. He may have to deal for a Jake Peavy even though Boston’s pitching is more proven and only slightly older than Tampa’s.
For the longest time, Boston’s off-season modus operandi has revolved around acting and reacting to the Evil Empire. Now, they’ll have to include the Death’s Waiting Room Republic in their thinking.
The Rays aren’t going away, folks. Get used to those obnoxious cowbells.
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