LEWISTON – The number of Somali immigrants moving to Lewiston has slowed dramatically over the past nine months, dropping from an average of 40 new arrivals a week to less than 10.

Still, city officials say there is no way to know for certain whether the trend will continue.

Although some local immigrants have warned that as many as 200 Somalis are expected to come to Lewiston this summer from Columbus, Ohio, others have told them that the lack of employment will eventually drive people away.

“Nobody knows for certain what to expect,” said Assistant City Administrator Phil Nadeau. “All we can do is share what the trend has been. Anything else would be pure speculation.”

City officials estimate that the total number of Somalis in Lewiston has grown from about 1,100 to 1,200 over the past year.

Several factors could have played a role in the slow growth.

The controversy over Mayor Larry Raymond’s letter asking Somalis to slow their migration and the subsequent visit from a national white supremacist group could have kept some immigrants away.

Others could have been dissuaded by the harsh winter, a lack of public transportation, a shortage of jobs or the simple fact that families with children did not want to move during the school year.

“We expected the numbers to slow in September,” said Victoria Scott, the city’s new immigrant and refugee programs manager. “Now that the school year is over, we’re expecting them to go up again.”

According to Scott, two families are moving to Lewiston this week from a homeless shelter in Portland.

How long they stay may depend on the availability of jobs.

According to Nadeau, the Maine Department of Labor estimates that about 50 percent of the city’s Somali population is employed.

Said Mohamud is part of the other 50 percent.

A Somali immigrant who moved here in January with his wife and seven children, Mohamud goes to the Lewiston Career Center every week. He has been on several interviews, but they’ve all ended the same way.

“They say, ‘We’ll call you if we need you.’ Then they do not call,” Mohamud said. “The unemployment in the Somali community is very high.”

Scott believes that the problem is caused by a lack of transportation, not simply a lack of jobs. Companies in other areas want to hire the Somalis, she said, but many of the immigrants do not have a way to get to the jobs.

Plans are in place to deal with the transportation problem and to improve other ongoing obstacles, such as the language barrier and the lack of affordable day care, according to Scott and other city officials.

Despite the high unemployment rate among the Somali community, the number of Somalis who rely on General Assistance has dropped over the past year.

Only 4 to 5 percent of the current population receive money from the city, compared to about 14 percent in 2001 and 2002.

The drop is due in large part to the fact that many Somalis have been taken off the city’s General Assistance program and placed on federal and private programs, such as TANF and food stamps, Nadeau said.

Whether this would stay the same also was unknown.

“The economy is still on shaky ground,” Nadeau said. “We just don’t know.”

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