From the day he took office, there has been little doubt that President Bush would run again. After all, the last elected president who didn’t seek a second term was Rutherford B. Hayes, a controversial figure because of the questionable circumstances in which he was elected in 1876.

There also was controversy about the circumstances under which Bush was elected. But most Americans have long since accepted him. And he always has seemed determined to succeed where his father failed and, in the process, lead Republicans to a big win that would cement their hold on the federal government.

Still, perhaps he should have thought twice, not because of how he won the White House but because of the recent history of presidents and second terms. Two of the last four elected presidents failed to win re-election. Most who did had troubled second terms. Some were disastrous. And Bush has set several land mines that could blow up under a successor, including himself.

The historical record hardly is encouraging. Jimmy Carter and George Bush failed to win re-election. Gerald Ford failed to win a full term after succeeding to the presidency. And Dwight Eisenhower, Richard Nixon, Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton all had big problems after they won re-election.

Nixon resigned in the face of impeachment and conviction over the Watergate scandal. Clinton was impeached for lying about his affair with a White House intern. Though acquitted, he lost any chance of achieving major governmental change. Eisenhower had health problems and a major economic recession that crippled the GOP and paved the way for the election of a Democratic successor. Reagan was damaged by mishandling the Iran-contra scandal and an inability to reduce massive deficits.

Two presidents who inherited the office after their predecessors died encountered serious problems when they won full terms of their own. Harry Truman, beset by scandals and hamstrung by a stalemated and unpopular war in Korea, could have run again but didn’t. Lyndon B. Johnson, hamstrung by a stalemated and unpopular war in Vietnam and rising disorder at home, likewise bowed out.

So, what could befall a re-elected George W. Bush?

Neither of his greatest first-term successes, the war on terror and the liberation of Iraq, is resolved, and both could create problems. And even if they are resolved, emphasis might return to domestic issues on which Bush has encountered trouble. The explosion in the deficit may force him or a successor to choose between repealing his tax cuts and cutting Social Security.

Another potentially troubling issue is the environment. That could pose problems for Bush, whose policies have been criticized by top environmental groups. Even his most successful domestic initiative, the No Child Left Behind education law, faces severe problems. Hundreds of schools may fail to meet its strict standards for both students and teachers, creating massive problems for many school districts.

And Bush may have to face a second term without such key figures as Secretary of State Colin Powell and Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld. Both may leave after 2004.

The second President Bush already has been a surprising president, more dominant and successful abroad than at home. A second term could bring surprises, too. But the historical record isn’t promising.

Carl P. Leubsdorf is Washington bureau chief of the Dallas Morning News.