Experts would expect at least two opponents to surface by now.
LEWISTON – Despite being a target of the national Republican party, U.S. Rep. Mike Michaud has no challenger yet in his bid for re-election to Maine’s second district.
With 10 months remaining before November’s election, and with a March 15 candidate deadline looming, experts say it’s unusual that no one has stepped forward to take on Michaud, a Democratic incumbent completing his first term.
“By now you’d expect two or three,” said Christian Potholm, a political adviser and a professor of government at Bowdoin College in Brunswick.
Carl Trautman, who teaches government at Central Maine Community College in Auburn, agreed that it was unusual for a first-term incumbent not to have a challenger by now.
It’s surprising, he said, because while it’s difficult to beat an incumbent, the easiest time is the first time they’re running for re-election. “That’s when they’re soft,” he said.
Republicans say the party is working on finding a candidate.
Potholm, a Republican, has received calls from Republicans in Washington looking for someone to run against Michaud. He didn’t give them good news.
“I’ve told them Mike Michaud has been a great congressman,” Potholm said. “I wish he’s supported the president more in foreign policy, but I think he’s going to be extremely hard to beat, by anybody.”
The National Republican Congressional Committee is willing to offer financial help to a candidate who will challenge Michaud, said Dwayne Bickford, executive director of the Maine Republican Party. According to the committee’s Web page, it has Republican candidates running for the U.S. House in 47 states. Maine is one of only three states where there is no Republican running.
This year’s field of one candidate is a sharp contrast to two years ago, when 10 candidates were fighting over the open seat created after then-U.S. Rep. John Baldacci decided to run for governor.
‘Uphill battle’
In a prepared statement, Dottie Melanson, chairwoman of the Maine Democratic Party, said she wasn’t surprised there is no Republican challenger. Michaud has become an effective legislator and as a member of the House Transportation Committee has secured millions of dollars for Maine. Michaud opposed the Bush Administration’s changes to Medicare that left seniors without coverage.
Republicans see “an uphill battle that can’t be won,” Melanson said.
But party leader Bickford asserted that not only will Republicans soon have a candidate, that person will beat Michaud.
Bickford said that the lack of a Republican candidate did not mean that Michaud is formidable. “It says that people are seriously considering the run,” Bickford said. “It means they’re taking their time before making final decisions.”
Carl Forti of the National Republican Congressional Committee agreed. “The filing deadline isn’t until March. There’s still plenty of time,” he said from Washington. Republicans like Maine’s Second Congressional District, Forti said.
People in central and northern Maine are more conservative than southern Mainers and the votes reflect that. Last time the race was tight: Michaud got 52 percent of the votes and Republican Kevin Raye got 48 percent. The race is an opportunity for Republicans to pick up a seat, Forti said.
Meanwhile, the rural second district hasn’t fared well, Bickford said. “We’ve lost a fair amount of jobs since Michaud took office, including (Great Northern paper mill) where he works.”
Potential candidates likely looked at the race two years ago when Michaud emerged the winner of a pack of 10 and saw that anybody surviving that probably would win again, Potholm said.
U.S. Rep. Tom Allen, D-Maine, who is seeking re-election to the first district, also has no Republican challenger.
“This is the first time we don’t know who our challenger is by now,” said Jackie Pottery, chief of staff for Allen, who is seeking his fifth term.
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