More people are moving to Maine, according to new census figures, giving the state what may have been the fourth highest rate of “in-migration” in the country from 2002-2003.

This partly accounts for a 0.76 increase in the state’s population, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

But that figure has economists, demographers, planners and state policy makers scratching their heads.

“What we had decided, in discussing it among several economists, was that probably the direction of the change is correct,” state economist Laurie LaChance said last week. “But, the magnitude will likely be revised downward.”

Even if the figures are revised, LaChance said it certainly is good news for the state. But how good depends on further analysis and whether the one-year increase continues, she said.

“I think this is just great news,” Gov. John Baldacci said. “Maine has been growing. I have been hearing it from Realtors. I have been hearing it from people working in architecture, engineering, and researchers in those fields.”

Maine previously had very little net in-migration. The state’s population in the 2000 U.S. census was 1,274,923.

What surprised the experts looking at the new numbers was not just that Maine had significant in-migration. It was the size of it. For more than a decade, Maine was ranked 44th in the nation for overall growth, that is when births and net in-migration are added together. The latest census numbers would place Maine 22nd in the nation for overall change from 2002 to 2003.

Births in Maine continue to be among the lowest in the nation, accounting for only 0.01 percent growth from 2002 to 2003.

But some experts urge caution.

“The census was predicting there would be an increase from in-migration,” said Dierdre Mageean, dean of the Graduate School at the University of Maine and associate vice president for research. She formerly was director of the Margaret Chase Smith Center for Public Policy and researched Maine’s demographic patterns.

“These numbers get revised quite regularly, and when the numbers are finalized, we may not be doing as well as these preliminary numbers indicate,” she said.

The researchers do not have the detailed data they want to figure out who is moving into the state. But, they do have some research that indicates it is not just retirees. University of Southern Maine economist Charles Colgan has been looking at statistical data from the U.S. Internal Revenue Service.

“It tells you the number of exemptions and whether they claim the over 65 exemption, so you can get a picture of the number of retirees moving in,” he said. “And basically, that has been consistent. Growth has been in the non-retirees.”

Colgan agrees with LaChance that the census figures are in the right direction, but he does not believe the increase has been as large as indicated. He said Maine’s economy, while basically showing no growth, has not “tanked” like it has in other states, and that has left Maine relatively better off than many states.

Mageean said the latest studies of why people move have shown an increase in the importance of amenities and that people make decisions based on their personal circumstances.

“The studies show close proximity to bodies of water is very important to many people – and to scenic places – and we have plenty of both in Maine,” she said.

But great amenities alone will not draw people to the state, she said. They need jobs to support their families.

In addition to the amenities index, another explanation could be the high ranking parts of Maine get on the creativity index developed by Carnegie Mellon University professor Richard Florida.

In his writings, Florida describes the Creativity Index as a mix of four equally weighted factors predicting a region’s economic future: the creative class’s share of the workforce, the amount of high-tech industry, innovative thinkers and a diverse population.

He has been invited to speak at a conference on the creative economy that will be held in Lewiston in May.