AUGUSTA (AP) – During the next decade, student enrollment in Maine is projected to decline by more than 12 percent as part of a demographic trend some fear could force schools to deliver services with bare-bone resources.

The decline from 206,600 to 180,000 is likely driven by out-migration and a low birth rate, according to a report released to the State Board of Education.

According to projections in Wednesday’s report, Piscataquis, Washington and Franklin counties are each expected to lose more than 25 percent of their students. Aroostook County could lose more than 20 percent of its students.

Suzan Cameron with Maine’s Department of Education said declining enrollment will affect everything from tuition rates to state funding.

Cumberland County gained more than 5 percent and York County around 3 percent during the last 10 years, but the influx isn’t expected to continue.

“The numbers are devastating,” she said. “This is the most opportune time for the governor’s regionalization plan,” Cameron said.

Cameron added that parts of Maine that have seen student numbers increase in recent years because of in-migration are not clear of the decline.

Gov. John Baldacci wants to see groups of at least two existing school districts combine into single governing bodies. Newly combined districts would have to have at least 1,000 students.

Baldacci’s plan also encourages school districts to band together into “Regional Cooperatives” of five or more school districts that would provide regional services and programs.

In exchange, districts would see 7.5 percent to 10 percent increases in state aid, depending on their size.

Enrollment statewide has gone down about 4 percent in the last decade, according to the report. It is expected to decrease statewide by more than 2 percent by next year and by more than 8 percent by 2008.

“It’s numbers like this that cause us to look so seriously at regionalization and consolidation,” said Jean Gulliver, chairwoman of the state board. “We’re facing profound and significant changes that will affect every aspect of the way we deliver services and live in this state.”

Deputy Commissioner of Education Patrick Phillips said the numbers point to the role learning results will play in preparing students for the future.

“With fewer and fewer students, it will be much more important for each student to be prepared to play an active role in the work force and community,” he said.