BANGOR (AP) – No one knows for sure what will happen to Maine’s black bear population if a November referendum to ban bear baiting is approved. But taxidermists say they’ll lose, either way.

The Maine Association of Taxidermists estimates that its members could lose $1 million in revenue if voters approve the citizens’ initiative banning bear baiting, trapping and hounding.

“We’re not talking little money here,” said association member Mark Russell, who runs a business in North Yarmouth.

A coalition of pro-baiting organizations called Maine’s Fish and Wildlife Conservation Council contends the referendum would destroy bear hunting because out-of-state hunters would take their business elsewhere.

A group called Maine Citizens for Fair Bear Hunting, which proposed the referendum, says hunting businesses may take a hit in the short term but that the bear industry could recover by changing hunting techniques.

Whether the bear hunt would increase or decrease in the long run, all parties agree that the annual kill of about 4,000 bears would drop during the short term if the referendum passes.

The Maine Association of Taxidermists has been collecting statistics to contribute to a larger economic study being prepared by the Fish and Wildlife Conservation Council.

The 106 licensed taxidermists in Maine mount at least half of all the bears killed here – about 2,000 bears.

Each bear costs between $400 and $2,000, depending on whether it becomes a rug, a mounted head or a full animal.

John Wardwell, who runs a South China shop and serves as president of the Maine Association of Taxidermists, said he expects to see nearly all of this bear revenue lost if the referendum passes.

“After 15 years, I just finally went full time this year,” he said. If the referendum passes, “the hunt would be peanuts. … I’d probably have to turn around and get a part-time job.”

In northern Maine, where nearly all of the bears are shot, taxidermists are even more worried.

“I wouldn’t survive without bears,” said Steve Jandreau, whose business, Wildlife Artistry, is based in the heart of bear country, the town of Portage in Aroostook County.

Jandreau alone took in 180 bears last year, representing about 75 percent of his income, he said.

AP-ES-06-04-04 1413EDT