SAN FRANCISCO – Paul Verna got a letter from his heating-oil company in late June offering a deal he normally seizes upon – a chance to fix the price he pays for the coming winter.

To Verna, signing a supply contract eliminates uncertainty in budgeting for the 1,300 gallons of heating oil needed on average to warm his home in Kennebunk, Maine. This year, confronted with record high prices, he balked at committing to the $1.40 a gallon offer after paying $1.20 last year.

“It’s always a gamble,” said the 39-year-old technology communications specialist. “This year, it’s been a dilemma because the prices are higher than they have been.”

Verna is not alone. More than 8 million U.S. households rely on oil as their main heating fuel. In the Northeast, home to 78 percent of those households, the typical residence uses about 1,000 gallons each year.

Barring some price rollbacks that means the average household will have to lay out $1,400 or more for heat this winter. Since that expense is generally borne in a four- to five-month period, the financial burden is considerable, especially for lower-income families.

In normal years, most experts say, “locking in” a fixed price is a smart way to go. As many as 90 percent of some suppliers’ customers do just that. They may not receive the rock-bottom price, but they get a steady supply without worrying about price fluctuations that could torpedo family budgets or eat into savings.

But this year is different because of the volatility in the crude-oil market. An early cold snap, a disruption in Middle East supplies or a terrorist attack in the United States could send heating-oil prices sharply higher. But warmer-than-expected weather or an unpredictable event such as the capture of Osama bin Laden could trigger a drop.

Most fixed-price deals in New England already are higher than the $1.40 offered to Verna six weeks ago. Observers say most contracts now offer a fixed price of $1.50 or higher, and prices of $1.80 are not uncommon.

Energy analysts were warning of a price spike earlier this year as gasoline prices spiked and refineries planned for heating-oil production.

Adjusted for inflation, prices are far below their 1982-1983 peak of $2.50 per gallon in today’s dollars, according to the American Petroleum Institute. Inflation adjusted prices hit a low in 1972, before the first of that decade’s two oil crises.

Unlike most of the last decade, many dealers haven’t yet set their price – and some decided not to offer fixed-price contracts at all.

“The advantages of locking in prices … are obvious in normal circumstances, but it’s just much more of a gamble this time around with all of these fluctuations,” said Brian O’Connor, spokesman for Citizens Energy Corp., a Massachusetts-based advocacy and charity group. “There is a lot of confusion this year.”

Sean Lyons, president of Lyons Fuel in Arlington, Mass., said dealers face tough decisions of their own. Since many make only about 5 cents on each gallon, misjudging the market can have dire consequences for them.

“You can’t time the market,” said Lyons, who services about 5,000 customers in the Boston area. “Even the know-it-all gurus can’t time the market, and yet the consumers want us to time the market for them.”

Lyons said he set a fixed price of $1.40 in June but later stopped offering it. He advises consumers to take the risk and not lock in a price. “It’s already up too high, you might as well wait.”

Consumer advocates say the decision to lock in or not depends on a host of often family-specific circumstances and hesitate to give general advice. But unlike in past years, they say consumers need to think carefully before committing to one option.

Tim Irving, executive director of oil-buying cooperative Heat USA, advises consumers to carefully read contracts before they sign. Some dealers are attaching strings to their offered price caps, giving themselves an out if the price rises sharply.

Some contracts also offer a temptingly low price – but only to customers willing to buy oil from a given dealer for five years. Penalties for breaking such contracts can be extremely expensive, Irving said.

“We tell them (consumers) to be very careful what they enter into,” he said. “Prices could go up but they could also come down. Supplies are very normal.

“The wild card is the weather. We’ve had two colder-than-normal winters in a row, and I am told that three in a row hasn’t happened in 40 or 50 years.”

One solution to this dilemma may be to buy half your expected heating-oil supply now at a set price and purchase the rest as you need it at then-current prices. That arrangement takes some uncertainty out of a family’s fuel budget.

Consumers interested in locking in should shop for the best deal, and not hesitate to play one dealer off against another. But don’t wait too long before settling on a supplier, experts say, because more may stop offering fixed prices as autumn approaches.