New England’s chances of winning the AFC East again certainly improved when it acquired Corey Dillon to be the heavy-duty running back the Patriots haven’t had since Curtis Martin left after the 1997 season.

They got even better when everything went wrong in Miami.

After winning two Super Bowls in three seasons, New England was set to enter the season as the AFC East favorite in any case, probably a good bet to become only the second team to win three Super Bowls in four years.

But it certainly didn’t hurt when, in short order, Miami lost running back Ricky Williams to retirement, wide receiver David Boston to a knee injury and was forced to trade defensive end Adewale Ogunleye after failing to reach an agreement on a contract. That left the Dolphins, projected as the second-best team in the division, facing the prospect of their first losing season since 1988.

The New York Jets and Buffalo figure to be respectable, but aren’t close to the Patriots.

The last time it won the Super Bowl, after the 2001 season, New England slumped to 9-7 and missed the playoffs.

That’s not likely this time – coach Bill Belichick, who continues to mix veteran role players and youngsters, just won’t permit it. And Belichick and personnel director Scott Pioli draft wonderfully, with six rookies playing a major role last season. There’s no reason to think this year’s class, led by 330-plus pound nose tackle Vince Wilfork won’t be almost as good.

It starts for the Patriots, of course, with Tom Brady, the sixth-round draft pick in 2000 who has been the MVP in New England’s two Super Bowl victories, both won on last-second field goals by Adam Vinatieri. Brady has become a facsimile of his boyhood idol, Joe Montana, a quarterback with seemingly unspectacular physical skills who does nothing but win.

Brady went through eight home games last season without throwing an interception in a system so simple that it sometimes looks like pitch and catch.

“We don’t really have many plays, other than a screen, where the ball has to go to a designated guy, for the most part,” Belichick says. “The quarterback reads the coverage and tries to throw to the area of the coverage where it is the weakest, and our receivers at that point have to do two things: get open and catch the ball.”

Sounds simple. But very few other teams can do it that way.

And this season, they have Dillon, disgruntled in Cincinnati but happy to be with a winner, to put even more pressure on defenses. He was relegated to backup duty last year, but had never failed to gain more than 1,000 yards in his first six NFL seasons despite playing on one of the NFL’s worst teams.

Add that to a defense that seems to plug in players with ease because they’re drafted and signed for specific roles. Last year’s No. 1 pick Ty Warren, for example, will start at defensive end after a season of apprenticing along the line. He could end up starring the same way as Richard Seymour, one of the league’s top defensive linemen who followed the same path and is now in his fourth year.

Three other youngsters, receivers David Givens and Deion Branch and defensive back Asante Samuel, could earn starting jobs from veterans. Dan Klecko, a defensive lineman in college and as a rookie last season, is making the dramatic switch to inside linebacker, being tutored by Tedy Bruschi, who did the same thing and was a standout during last season’s Super Bowl run.

That’s a system that works for the Patriots.

The Jets would just be happy to keep Chad Pennington healthy.

He wasn’t last season, breaking his hand and wrist in an exhibition game and missing the first six games. So New York started 2-6 en route to a 6-10 season, a record it hopes to reverse this year.

Expect Pennington to be fine – he led the league in passing efficiency two years ago. The addition of Justin McCareins to Santana Moss gives him two top targets. Martin, who defected from the Patriots six years ago, is healthy and could move up to fifth or sixth on the career rushing list.

But the key to the Jets’ season is the defense, which was in the bottom third in the league last year and 28th against the run. Coordinator Ted Cottrell was fired, Donnie Henderson replaces him and the team will switch to a 3-4 defense some of the time.

For that to succeed, more is needed from Dewayne Robertson, a disappointment as a rookie last year whom the Jets moved up in the draft to take him. Supposedly an impact defensive lineman, he took the impact last year from opposing offensive linemen rudely pushing him aside.

Buffalo expected a lot last year and got little, falling from 8-8 to 6-10, costing Gregg Williams his job as head coach. Mike Mularkey, Pittsburgh’s former offensive coordinator, replaced him.

The Bills need more from Drew Bledsoe, who had a marvelous 2002 after being obtained from New England when Brady beat him out there. But he was terrible last season, ranking 21st in passer efficiency. Bledsoe has no security blanket now, because J.P. Losman, the Bills’ second first-round draft pick and Bledsoe’s eventual successor, broke his leg in training camp.

The offense could get some help from Lee Evans, the Bills’ first pick, who could be the speed receiver they lost when Peerless Price was traded to Atlanta before last season. And the running back tandem of Travis Henry and Willis McGahee could be explosive if the offensive line, a trouble spot, comes together.

Things can’t get any worse in Miami, where coach Dave Wannstedt’s job was in jeopardy even before Williams retired. Travis Minor, who ran for 193 yards last season to Williams’ 1,372, is his designated successor, but only by default. And A.J. Feeley, obtained in a trade with Philadelphia, hasn’t been any better at quarterback than Jay Fiedler, who the coaching staff has been trying to replace almost since he became a starter four years ago.

The Dolphins, who missed the playoffs last year despite a 10-6 record, did obtain Boston to be their No. 1 receiver, but he’s gone for the season with a knee injury. So they got Marty Booker from Chicago to replace him, but Booker’s not Boston and the price was Ogunleye, who was holding out after leading the AFC in sacks.

The rest of the defense, led by brothers-in-law Jason Taylor and Zach Thomas, plus cornerbacks Sam Madison and Patrick Surtain, remains together. But it’s getting older and it will be on the field so much that it won’t hold up.

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Predictions: New England 13-3; Jets 9-7; Buffalo 7-9; Miami 4-12.

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