FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. – Hurricane Ivan, aiming at the Caymans and Cuba with calamitous Category 5 force, took an unexpected jog to the west on Saturday, allowing South Florida, and much of the rest of the state, to exhale.

While residents should remain vigilant, the ferocious storm was forecast to angle northwest into the Gulf of Mexico, far enough away that this region should escape previously-feared hurricane or tropical storm conditions, forecasters said.

Under the current projection, South Florida might see some gusts to 40 mph and 1 to 2 inches of rain, starting Sunday night and through Monday, said meteorologist Jim Lushine, of the National Weather Service in Miami. By Monday night, the worst should be over.

“All the severe weather should stay west,” he said. “It should be a relative non-event here, a breezy weekend and possibly a wet Monday.”

Ivan’s top winds exploded to 165 mph on Saturday evening as it crawled across the central Caribbean, making it the strongest storm this year and a potential weapon of mass destruction if it hits land at that intensity.

In Florida, the Panhandle is most at risk. The forecast track has Ivan as a Category 4 with 132 mph winds making a potential landfall near Apalachicola on Wednesday. However, the future track might shift farther west, forecasters said.

As of Saturday, the state’s entire east coast, including almost all of Lake Okeechobee, was no longer considered in the storm’s potential path over the next three days. However, the lower Keys remained in the cone of error.

Because of that, Monroe County officials kept evacuation orders in place, hoping to allow residents and tourists to return after the hurricane threat has clearly diminished.

“People are calling and asking if they can come back, and we’re saying no,” said Key West city spokesman Michael Haskins.

Most of Florida’s Gulf Coast should escape the worst of Ivan, including Punta Gorda, which was devastated by Hurricane Charley last month. But the stretch of coastline from Tampa north could see some gusty winds and heavy rains because the system was expected to draw closer to land in that area.

Ivan was to be about 400 miles south of Miami by Sunday morning. Late on Saturday, the system was 100 miles southeast of Grand Cayman, moving northwest at 9 mph.

Hurricane warnings have been posted for both the Caymans and Cuba, which face not only Ivan’s incredibly powerful winds but also 8 to 12 inches of rain, potential mudslides, flash floods and a storm surge of 20 to 25 feet above normal tide levels, forecasters said.

National radio urged Cubans living in vulnerable homes to find shelter in more stable buildings. More than 170,000 people across the island were evacuated by Saturday morning.

Maria del Carmen Jimenez, 33, prepared her home in the town of Santa Fe, near Havana, then planned to evacuate. Last month, Hurricane Charley damaged shingles on her roof.

“We are terrified,” she said. “I have a little girl and I know this house will not sustain the winds.”

At Cuba’s Forecasting Center, meteorologist Miriam Llanes predicted the hurricane could make landfall in the Isle of Youth after midnight on Monday, and likely as a Category 5.

“It’s an immense catastrophe,” she said.

After building to a 155-mph buzz saw on Friday night, Ivan meandered just far enough south of Jamaica that the island escaped a direct hit from the worst winds – though five were killed and the death toll could still be higher as damages have yet to be assessed.

A 10-year-old girl drowned in Old Harbor, just east of Kingston, and a woman was killed in the capital by a tree that struck here home, said Ronald Jackson of Jamaica’s disaster relief agency. A man, a woman and a baby also drowned in Clarendon parish, just west of Kingston, according to reports.

The total death toll from Ivan across the Caribbean rose to 56, with most of those in Grenada, which was devastated by the storm on Tuesday.

The same wobble, caused by a high pressure ridge, that spared Jamaica from the storm’s full fury also brightened South Florida’s prospects.

“This track is slowly but surely shifting over to the west, and that decreases the threat to South Florida,” said Max Mayfield, director of the National Hurricane Center in Miami-Dade County.

At its closest point to South Florida, Ivan was to be about 300 miles west of Fort Lauderdale on Tuesday, meaning the region should only feel the outer most fringes of the storm, with winds of 25 to 35 mph.

Those winds should start picking up Sunday, the result of the hurricane’s low pressure clashing with a high-pressure ridge north of it. The hurricane’s approach also was expected to create dangerous rip currents along the beaches, Lushine said.

The threat to the Keys also has been reduced because the storm was projected to remain more than 100 miles west of Key West, and its most devastating winds extend only 60 miles from its core.

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Key West locals, who had opted to stay on the island, meanwhile, sat around largely empty bars, enjoying a wave of uncharacteristic calm in the tourist hotspot.

“The tourists, the pale invaders from the north, are gone,” said Tim Doherty, the only customer at Jimmy Buffett’s Margaritaville restaurant on Saturday.

For the 738,000 homes along the East Coast that remained without power on Saturday because of Frances – many of those in Palm Beach County – Ivan’s westerly course means that Florida Power & Light workers can continue making repairs. The company had been planning to send workers home so they could prepare for Ivan.

Mayfield said residents of northeast and Central Florida need to be prepared because Ivan could take an unexpected turn, as Charley did last month into Punta Gorda.

Although the last time Tallahassee was severely hit by major hurricane was in 1985, with Hurricane Kate, residents were taking Ivan’s impending arrival in stride. Gasoline stations and grocery stores were busy but not hectic.

At a Home Depot, Natalie and Greg Hand, 12-year residents of Tallahassee, stood in a short line with their three children to buy sheets of plywood. But after they secure their home, they’re heading to Georgia.

“We’re taking the advice of our friends and family from South Florida, and we’re packing up and heading out,” said Natalie Hand, formerly of Hollywood. “I’d rather deal with the stress after (the storm) than to deal with the before, during and after.”

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(South Florida Sun-Sentinel correspondents Vanessa Bauza, Tania Valdemoro and Mark Hollis contributed to this report.)

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(c) 2004 South Florida Sun-Sentinel.

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Distributed by Knight Ridder/Tribune Information Services.

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GRAPHICS (from KRT Graphics, 202-383-6064): 20040911 Ivan damage death, 20040911 Storm Ivan

AP-NY-09-11-04 2126EDT