Reality may finally be breaking through the rosy rhetoric coming from President Bush on the campaign trail.

On the stump, Bush talks about the progress being made in Iraq, touting a schedule that includes elections in January. But a classified National Intelligence Estimate from July – first reported on by the New York Times – makes clear that the situation in Iraq is dire and likely to get worse.

According to the NIE, there are three possible outcomes, the best of which is a tenuous stability. The worst is all-out civil war. The prognosis for successful elections or the quick transition to a functioning democracy is awful.

The State Department has asked Congress to reallocate reconstruction money for security, putting off major rebuilding projects. The request is a recognition of the increasing violence and the inability of current Iraqi forces to significantly contribute to the country’s defense.

Meanwhile, on the campaign trail, President Bush brags about rebuilt schools, elections and a strong prime minister, while only acknowledging amorphous difficulties. There’s no indication that he has a plan on how to extricate the United States. His policy: Stay the course. He ignores the growing insurgency, the cities under the control of insurgents and a more sophisticated enemy. We are not winning hearts and minds.

Sen. Kerry is quick to counter with the litany of what’s wrong. Former Sen. Max Cleland, a Vietnam vet and co-chairman of Kerry’s campaign, was in Maine this week talking about the failures in Iraq and Afghanistan. Kerry publicly recognizes the problems, but his campaign offers a Pollyanna solution of bringing in more allies without explaining how or why they’d get involved in this bloody mess.

Kerry also says he would expand the military by 40,000 and double the number of Special Forces units. But that takes time and the results would be measured in years. What do the soldiers in Iraq do in the meantime? Just hold on?

While the nation has been transfixed by CBS and its suspicious documents, Bush’s National Guard service and Kerry’s war record, there’s no serious, detailed debate about the war in Iraq.

Voters see what’s happening on the ground. They know people in the National Guard or active duty forces serving in Iraq, and they see that things have gone terribly wrong. It’s time the candidates own up to the facts and talk about what the country can and should do next.