CONCORD, N.H. (AP) – A new Concord Monitor poll shows President Bush and Sen. John Kerry virtually tied in the state, with the Iraq war playing an increasingly important role in voters’ decisions.

The poll shows Bush and Kerry each with 46 percent of the vote. Ralph Nader received 2 percent, and 6 percent of voters were undecided.

The poll ranked the economy as still the most important issue for New Hampshire residents. But the war in Iraq and fighting terrorism were not far behind.

Although 46 percent of those polled didn’t like the way Bush has handled the war, 52 percent felt he is best able to protect the nation from another terrorist attack. On resolving the situation in Iraq, the two men are nearly tied, with 45 percent favoring Bush and 42 preferring Kerry.

The results are among the tightest in the race so far, and neither candidate is likely to break ahead until after next week’s debate, according to Del Ali, whose Maryland-based polling firm, Research 2000, conducted the survey.

Kerry has a chance to put Bush on the defensive, Ali said, especially if he continues with the war-based message he’s ratcheted up this week.

“He’s starting to mention that Bush has a plan to bring the draft back,” Ali said. “If he crosses Bush up with that, and Bush can’t give a decisive no, that breaks it wide open.”

But if Kerry flubs the debate, things could get a lot rosier for the Bush campaign, Ali added.

“People say, as unhappy as I am with Bush, there’s no way I’d trust Kerry,” he said.

Ali’s company interviewed 600 likely voters by telephone Sept. 20 to 23. Republicans made up 35 percent of those interviewed, Democrats made up 28 percent and independents 37 percent.

Women made up 51 percent of the sample. The margin of error was plus or minus four percentage points.

The two men have been trading off a narrow lead in recent New Hampshire polls. The new results show Kerry and Bush in a race that’s closer that it was last week. Ali attributed the situation to continuing problems in Iraq and Kerry’s renewed focus on Iraq.

“He hits two or three points every day, the same points, with the same vigor, and maybe he’ll throw in one domestic thing, but he stays on Iraq,” he said.

Neither campaign was surprised by the tight race, and representatives for both candidates said the debates will be important.

“The first debate is on foreign policy, and we know that George Bush’s handling of Iraq is in a way that has made us weaker and less secure in the world,” said Eric Schultz, a spokesman for Kerry’s New Hampshire campaign.

Bush spokeswoman Maria Comella likened the debate to a campaign stop. She said every chance Bush gets to speak to New Hampshire residents “puts him at an advantage.”

The race may ultimately be determined by what voters deem most important this fall, Ali said. The poll found that 19 percent of residents say the economy is the number one thing that will influence their decision on Election Day. The war on terror, Iraq and homeland security round out the top four, with 16, 15 and 14 percent respectively.

“It’s a very simple equation. If the economy and Iraq are number one and number two, Kerry wins. If the homeland and war on terror are up there, Bush wins,” Ali said.

Nader’s slot on New Hampshire’s ballot could affect such a tight race. If Nader weren’t on the ballot, the poll found that 47 percent of voters would support Kerry, 46 percent would support Bush and 7 percent would be undecided.

“This thing is tied; it’s one point either way,” Ali said. “In something this tight, Nader only hurts Kerry.”