AUGUSTA – John Kerry may have won Maine’s student mock election last Tuesday as announced in preliminary results, but the final vote shows a statistical dead heat.

Of some 65,000 ballots cast by middle school and high school students throughout Maine, Kerry squeaked by with 46 more votes than Bush. Kerry received 29,907 votes, Bush received 29,861, according to final results. Students also gave Ralph Nader 3,445 votes and Green candidate David Cobb 813 votes, according to the Secretary of State’s Office.

If students votes are reflecting their parents, it illustrates why Maine has been a battleground state. “This is incredibly close,” said Roger G. Philippon, assistant dean and political science teacher at Lewiston-Auburn College. He noted that the mock vote could be a concern for the Kerry campaign since polls have shown Kerry leading in Maine.

Breaking down the student vote a bit more, Kerry got 45.93 percent compared to Bush’s 45.86 percent, he said.

“I still fully expect Kerry will win Maine’s four electoral votes, and Nader will not do nearly as well with the general electorate as he did with the students,” Philippon predicted. “Bush’s strong showing here may be another indication that many young people tend to lean more conservatively than their parents.”

Bowdoin College professor and pollster Christian Potholm said Friday he doubted the student vote will mirror the actual vote in Maine on Tuesday. “It’s spotty. They got it wrong the last time,” Potholm said.

That is true, although students in the state have voted with their adult Maine counterparts in five of the last seven presidential and gubernatorial races. In 2000, Maine students voted for Bush, while adult voters went for Al Gore. And in 1992, students voted for Ross Perot, while adult Mainers voted for Clinton.

However, students matched state voters when they chose Gov. Angus King in 1998 and 1994, President Bill Clinton in 1996, Gov. John McKernan in 1990 and President George H.W. Bush in 1988.

“The idea is that supposedly kids reflect the views at home,” Potholm said. “But mine never reflected the views at home.”

Potholm said polls he has seen show Kerry with a solid lead of eight or nine percentage points in Maine.

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