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Here, in question-and-answer format, are some of the key points about the elections scheduled for Jan. 30 in Iraq.

Q. Just what will the voters be deciding?

A. At stake are all 275 seats in the National Assembly, Iraq’s parliament. Voters will also elect representatives to all 18 provincial assemblies, the equivalent of our state legislatures.

Q. Once the National Assembly is elected, what does it do?

A. It will pick a president and two vice presidents. Together with the National Assembly, those officers will appoint a prime minister.

More important, the National Assembly will draft a constitution for Iraq. If all goes well, that constitution will go to a nationwide vote later this year. Presumably, the new constitution will spell out how Iraq’s government will work, and how its elected members will be chosen.

Q. How will Iraqis choose the National Assembly members?

A. Unlike voters the United States, who elect representatives from set geographic areas, Iraqis will select from among 111 “lists,” or slates of candidates who can be from anywhere in the country. A slate that gets, say, 40 percent of the total vote will get 40 percent of the power -110 seats in the National Assembly. A slate that gets 20 percent of the vote will get 20 percent of the seats. And because a quarter of the seats have been set aside for women, each slate must be salted heavily with the names of women.

(EDITORS: BEGIN OPTIONAL TRIM)

Q. Who decided to set up the election as a nationwide vote, and why?

A. L. Paul Bremer III made the call last spring, when he was the U.S. proconsul in Baghdad. He felt pressure from Iraq’s Shiites to hold an election quickly – and subdividing Iraq into voting districts would have eaten up time.

Also, a nationwide setup makes it easier to let Iraqis living abroad vote. Finally, the setup made it easier to find women willing to run.

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Q. So what’s the problem with the nationwide vote?

A. If certain areas turn out a heavy vote, they can wield more than their share of power. And that’s all but sure to happen on Jan. 30. Insurgent violence is expected to dry up voter turnout in four of the 18 provinces – Anwar, Baghdad, Ninevah and Salahadin.

And because those provinces are home to most of Iraq’s Sunni Muslims, the Sunnis may be all but shut out of the National Assembly.

Q. Why don’t the Sunnis vote anyway and get their proportional share of power?

A. Mainly because the Sunni areas generate most of the violence in Iraq. Many Sunnis are afraid to venture out to the polls. Others think the Shiites (and the Americans) have stacked the system against them. At first, the Sunnis put up a slate of candidates. But on Dec. 27, they quit the race, saying that violence in their areas would hold down their vote – and their power.

Q. If the Sunni Muslims lose, who wins?

A. Iraq’s Shiite Muslims and its Kurds. (The Kurds are Sunni Muslims, but they are not ethnic Arabs.)

Q. What’s the difference between the Sunnis and the Shiites? Aren’t both groups Muslims?

A. Yes, both are Muslims. But, just as both Roman Catholics and Southern Baptists are Christians, they tend to drive in different theological lanes.

The Sunnis and Shiites split in the 7th Century with a quarrel over who would succeed the Prophet Muhammad. The Shiites more or less lost. Ever since, they’ve been in second place – poorer, and less politically powerful than the Sunnis.

Today, Shiites make up only 15 percent of the world’s Muslims. In the modern era, Shiites have held political power only in Iran. But Shiites make up 60 percent of Iraq’s 24 million people.

Q. Why, then, were the Shiites shut out of power in Iraq?

A. When Iraq became a nation after World War I, the British gave the government to the Arab Sunni minority (20 percent). The Sunnis held on to that power for eight decades, through the reign of Saddam Hussein. Now, Iraq’s Shiites see a chance to snatch the power they think their numbers entitle them to. The Sunnis are balking at letting go of the power.

Q. What about the Kurds?

A. The Kurds are a people without a country. They dream of a nation-state named Kurdistan. But for now, they live in nation-states with names like Iraq, Turkey and Syria.

Iraq’s Kurds make up maybe 17 percent of the population, clustered in the mountainous northeast. Through the years, they suffered terribly at the hands of the Sunnis in power.

The Kurds have their own factions. But for this election, anyway, those two factions have come together as a single slate. And the Kurds occupy the calmest quarter of Iraq, which makes voting safe. The upshot: Like the Shiites, the Kurds will gain at the Sunnis’ expense.

(EDITORS: BEGIN OPTIONAL TRIM)

Q. Just how bad is the violence?

Consider that so far, most of the 7,000 candidates on the ballot have kept their names secret, lest they become the target of insurgents. So voters will be choosing slates on blind faith, not on the basis of names and faces.

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Q. Are the Shiites as united as the Kurds?

A. Hardly. For the election, the Shiites have split largely into two groups:

The Iraqi National Alliance. This slate enjoys the tacit blessing of Iraq’s senior Shiite cleric, Grand Ayatollah Al-Sistani. Despite its name, the “alliance” is really a coalition of wildly different parties, including some Islamist fundamentalists.

Al-Iraqiyoon. It’s a secular slate, or as secular as political blocs get in that part of the world. Its leading light is the interim prime minister, Ayad Allawi.

For now, the betting holds that the Iraqi National Alliance will lead the pack. But what that will mean once the parliament sits remains to be seen.

(EDITORS: BEGIN OPTIONAL TRIM)

Q. If seats have been set aside for women, couldn’t seats have been set aside for Sunnis too?

A. No. Iraq’s election commission turned thumbs down on any such notion.

Still, American officials are said to be thinking of pressing the winners to offer the Sunnis a few Cabinet seats, plus some spots on the committees that will draft the new constitution.

(END OPTIONAL TRIM)

Q. What difference does it make if the Sunnis boycott the election?

A. World opinion might judge the new Iraqi government as short on legitimacy. And there’s the concrete possibility that the election results will brew today’s bombings and killings into tomorrow’s civil war.

Q. Is there an up side?

A. Remember, this month’s election is just a way step to the real election later this year. Much could change between now and then.

Four months ago, when Allawi visited Washington, President George W. Bush put the bright side this way:

“If elections go forward, democracy in Iraq will put down permanent roots, and terrorists will suffer a dramatic defeat. And because Iraq and America and our coalition are standing firm, the Iraqi people, and not the terrorists, will determine Iraq’s future.”

—

(c) 2005, St. Louis Post-Dispatch.

Visit the Post-Dispatch on the World Wide Web at http://www.stltoday.com/

Distributed by Knight Ridder/Tribune Information Services.

AP-NY-01-21-05 1637EST

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