So conventional wisdom everywhere except Philadelphia and Las Vegas (pretend this is one of those fill-in-the-blank Mad Libs and supply your own punch line there) dictates that the New England Patriots are a lock to win their third Roman Numeral Fest in four years.

Actually, the prevalent line of questioning isn’t will the Patriots polish off the Eagles in Super Bowl XXXIX, but how much is the inevitable margin of victory: One touchdown, or two? Does Corey Dillon complete his ascendance from pigskin purgatory by winning Most Valuable Player laurels, or does Tom Brady punch his ticket to the Pro Football Hall of Fame by winning a third sport utility vehicle?

Forget another last-second field goal. So reduced is Adam Vinatieri’s traditional role in tonight’s game that the Patriots plan to have him catch a touchdown pass from Mike Vrabel.

You’re absolutely right, realists. That train of thought is begging for derailment. So hold everything, ignore the hype and see this game for what it is: A first-class tossup.

As for you see-no-evil, speak-no-evil Patriot Heads who haven’t wasted energy examining the other side of the coin, hey, I don’t blame you. But let me be the needle to your balloon, the Bart to your Homer.

Philadelphia is good enough to win this game. Check that. I respectfully submit that the Eagles are going to win this game, albeit by a margin thinner than the pins holding together Terrell Owens’ ankle.

Quick question, amid this discussion of dynasties: What NFL team has won the highest percentage of its games over the last five years? The answer, of course, is the Philadelphia Eagles. And the explanation for that answer is Donovan McNabb.

He’s a winner. Ignorant Philly fans who booed when their team drafted McNabb over Ricky Williams picked the wrong guy. So did erstwhile ESPN studio “analyst” Rush Limbaugh. Overrated? That’d be Chad Pennington. McNabb is tougher than Peyton Manning, more creative than Ben Roethlisberger.

McNabb took a beating when the Eagles lost three consecutive championship games. He should have been saluted for guiding the team that far and putting up All-Pro numbers with such a wretched supporting cast.

Life is better these days, of course. Brian Westbrook merits some adulation for his continued development as an all-purpose back, but most of the credit goes to Owens. The most prolific red zone receiver since Cris Carter in his prime, T.O. probably saved McNabb from a nervous breakdown.

Yes, if Owens plays at all tonight, his routes will be gimpy, rusty and tentative after a seven-week layoff. But his emotional lift alone will be worth seven to 10 points. Oh, and say what you want about the motor-mouthed Frisco refugee, but merely watching Owens’ professionalism every day has made Freddie Mitchell and that gang of misfits better.

Even McNabb and Owens are overshadowed by Philly’s defense. Patriots super-coordinator Romeo Crennel deserves his many plaudits, no question, but counterpart Jim Johnson has assembled a tougher unit than New England has seen in its eight-game playoff unbeaten streak.

The Eagles blitz better than any team in the league, meaning notoriously quick thinker Brady must unload the ball in a Dan Marino-like flash. And that could be a deadly demand against this secondary.

True, Brady is the most efficient playoff quarterback ever. But the only time he faced a shutdown group like Brian Dawkins, Lito Sheppard and Michael Lewis (all Pro Bowl-bound) was in a blizzard against the Raiders, when it didn’t exactly come into play.

Critics expect the Eagles will be awestruck by their franchise’s first Super Bowl appearance since 1981 against a team that’s made it a ritual. That stuff’s overblown, though.

Denver hadn’t been in the game for eight years when it knocked off defending champion Green Bay in XXXII. In its first foray of the 1990s, Dallas dismantled third-time visitor Buffalo in XXVII. And look no further than the Patriots, who suited up only a handful of players with Super Bowl experience when they stopped seasoned St. Louis in XXXVI.

So the Eagles emerged from the “weaker” NFC. C’mon, you weren’t that impressed with Pittsburgh and Indianapolis, were you? And let’s not forget they were 13-1 before coach Andy Reid elected to mail in the final two games of the regular season for wellness’ sake.

In the end, a field goal wins it again. A David Akers field goal, that is.

Eagles 24, Patriots 22. McNabb’s the MVP.

Would three championships in five years equal a dynasty?

Kalle Oakes is a staff writer. His e-mail is [email protected].