By Kevin Mills,Staff Writer

By the time groundhog Punxsutawney Phil awakes from his annual winter slumber to search for his shadow in early February, the Dirigo Cougars are already guaranteed four more weeks of basketball season.

No matter how much optimism exists in the Mountain Valley Conference and Western Maine Class C each year, by tournament time, there’s typically no question which is the team to beat.

In December, teams hope that they’ve closed the gap with the reigning champs from Dixfield. There might be a few close calls and narrow misses. Teams like Hall-Dale, Jay, Mt. Abram, Wiscasset and Winthrop have all come away wondering what might have been on given nights.

Ultimately, by February, teams discover that believing one can beat the Dirigo dynasty is far different than actually doing so.

By the time Dirigo reaches the Augusta Civic Center, its mentality often resembles that of the New England Patriots in the credit card commercial in which the Super Bowl champs proclaim. “Not in our house.”

Favorite

The Cougars have won 14 Western C titles in 30 years, including 10 straight. Dirigo got tested early this season, but just when it looked like the Cougars might be vulnerable, they demonstrated how difficult it will be to dethrone them. They’ve won 136 straight games against MVC foes, including 121 consecutive regular-season games. Though Alexa Kaubris, the two-time MVC Player of the Year, has been her stellar self all year, Brooke Weston, Michelle Holmquist and Holly Knight have come on especially strong in the latter part of the season. The Cougars averaged just 32.6 points against and averaged over 58 points per game, the best in the tourney field.

Darkhorse: Hall-Dale was the supposed heir apparent this year. The Bulldogs lost by 10 in the season opener to the Cougars and got thumped in the MVC championship game, scoring 11 points in a demoralizing second half. It wouldn’t be surprising if the Bulldogs didn’t even survive to the regional final, but Hall-Dale has the potential to test Dirigo.

Wiscasset beat the Bulldogs and have won eight of its last nine. Watch out for Jay also. They’ve given Dirigo the biggest scare the last two years. The Tigers had the Cougars on the ropes in the semifinals last year before losing in overtime, 44-36. Jay lost to Dirigo this season, 33-31, in a last-second Cougar win.

Players to watch: Dirigo: Kaubris (16.9 points per game), Holmquist (12.2 ppg); Hall-Dale: Chelsey Dionne (10 ppg), Caitlyn Laflin (21 ppg); Wiscasset: Sarah Whitfield (15.3 ppg), Amanda Davis (13.2 ppg); Monmouth: Cortney Barrett (10.2 ppg), Jill Armstrong (8.8 ppg); Jay: Kaylie DeMillo (21.2 ppg), Sara Fetterhoff (12.1 ppg); Traip: Kasey Connor (15.6 ppg), Kelly Finneran (9.8 ppg); Boothbay: Kayley Gallagher (11.4 ppg), Nichole Williams (8.3 ppg); Telstar: Abby Wentworth (12 ppg), Bailey Davis (11 ppg).

Best quarterfinal: Monmouth beat Jay, 58-48, in the regular season. The Mustangs are without injured Bianca Cloutier, the defensive stopper that guarded DeMillo. It was the only win Monmouth had against any of the final eight in Western C.

Hall-Dale beat Boothbay, 61-52, in the regular season. The Seahawks are coming off an impressive prelim win over Winthrop, while the Bulldogs were humbled in the MVC title game. A strong Boothbay outing could give Hall-Dale a challenge and early exit.

Streaks and stats: Dirigo has won 34 of its last 35 games in Augusta. … Hall-Dale and Telstar allowed the most points per game, around 48. … Wiscasset has never won a quarterfinal game. … Monmouth is the second team ever to reach the quarterfinals as the No. 13 seed. Carrabec did it in 1981. … The Mustangs have won six of their last seven games. … Jay has won a quarterfinal game in its last five tries and hasn’t lost in the first round since 1997. … Traip has just one win against MVC teams since 1991. … WMC teams are 9-24 against MVC foes in the last 12 years.

Overview: Five of the Cougars first eight games were decided by 10 points or less. That included narrow wins over Jay, Mt. Abram and Winthrop. But during Dirigo’s last 10 games, the Cougars have won by a decisive 34 ppg, which includes five 20-plus point wins over Western C playoff teams. Hall-Dale has the talent but not the discipline. Teams like Wiscasset and Jay could be threats, if Dirigo doesn’t take care of business.

The Cougars are peaking at the proper time once again. If the scoreboard or the frustration on the Hall-Dale faces at the MVC title game didn’t tell enough, the Cougars expressions and the urgency of their effort spoke volumes.

The Cougars sent a clear message that they weren’t going to be beaten. If Dirigo brings that same attitude to Augusta, make way for No. 11.

Prediction: Dirigo