They have been sequestered on the 15th floor of the Indianapolis Westin hotel since Wednesday night, their phone access restricted, security guards at the elevator, a cart of ice cream and other goodies wheeled up every few hours or so. Not even their families are allowed to peek in on the secret proceedings.
The 10 most important people in college basketball every March, the members of the NCAA tournament selection committee, are finishing their homework, poring over their “Nitty Gritty” files, and will announce at 6 p.m. EST Sunday which 65 teams they deem worthy of the NCAA men’s basketball tournament.
The event has become as big as the NFL draft, and will be broadcast on national TV with a preview show and a postshow, during which talking heads will dissect each regional ad nauseam. Amateur bracketologists from Key West to Seattle will feverishly fill in their draw sheets.
By 6:30, fans will be whining on sports talk radio, claiming their team got robbed, accusing the committee of bias against mid-majors, bias against West Coast teams, bias against teams in green uniforms. And they will keep whining all the way into April. Some of the arguments will be valid. Some won’t. But that is part of the Madness.
Some will contend a 23-6 Oral Roberts team is more worthy than a North Carolina State team with twice as many losses. Or that Miami (Ohio), with a Ratings Power Index in the high 20s, is more deserving than tiny Mid-Continent champion Oakland, which earned an automatic berth despite a 12-18 record.
“I think there’s more parity in college basketball and it’s a better game, so that makes it tougher,” said Bob Bowlsby, chairman of the selection committee. “The selection process is like a block-charge call. Somebody will always be unhappy.”
As the committee enters its final hours of deliberation, there are many difficult choices to make.
Do committee members take an Iowa team that finished below .500 in the Big Ten? The Hawkeyes (21-11) were 7-9 in the Big Ten, but beat No. 13 Michigan State on Friday and lost at the buzzer against No. 23 Wisconsin in a conference tournament semifinal. Iowa also has notable nonconference wins against No. 6 Louisville, Texas and Texas Tech – all likely NCAA tournament invitees.
(Coincidentally, Bowlsby also is the Iowa athletic director, but that should have no bearing, as members are required to preclude themselves from conversing about or voting for their teams.)
Do they invite DePaul at 19-9, a team that lost to UAB in the quarterfinals of the Conference USA tournament? The Blue Demons were among several teams that hurt themselves during the past week. Likewise, Maryland, Miami, Notre Dame, Vanderbilt, Indiana and Virginia Tech all slipped from NCAA consideration to the NIT wish list with early losses in their conference tournaments.
Heading into the weekend, 14 of the 65 slots already had been filled with small-conference champions such as Central Florida (Atlantic Sun), Chattanooga (Southern), Fairleigh Dickinson (Northeast), Niagara (Metro Atlantic), Winthrop (Big South) and Wisconsin-Milwaukee (Horizon). In all, 31 conference champions will earn automatic bids.
Twenty-one spots were all but reserved for teams from the seven major conferences – the seven champions and 14 other “locks.” There is no question North Carolina, Wake Forest and Duke will be chosen from the ACC. Same goes for Syracuse, Boston College, Pitt, Connecticut and Villanova from the Big East. Kentucky, Alabama, Mississippi State, Florida and LSU look to be locks from the SEC.
That left 13 spots for the rest of college basketball to argue over – and a half-dozen of those spots were more than likely going to more teams from the power conferences. Included in that group are West Virginia, which helped its chances with a win against No. 7 Boston College in the Big East tournament, and Minnesota, which reached 21 wins with a 71-55 spanking of Indiana in the Big Ten tournament.
Do the math. That leaves seven spots up for grabs. Seven.
NCAA hopefuls got a break Saturday when Vermont (24-6) won the America East tournament. The Catamounts have an impressive 23 RPI, but lost three of their final six regular-season games and probably needed a conference title to get in.
Their victory now means one other at-large team is in a better situation.
Does Northern Iowa, a 20-win team with an RPI of 34 that saw its chances take a nose dive with a quarterfinal loss in the Missouri Valley Conference tournament, merit consideration? It’s unprecedented for the MVC to receive four bids, and Southern Illinois, Creighton and Wichita State would get the edge over Northern Iowa.
And what about St. Mary’s? The Gaels are 23-7, have a 31 RPI and a top 25 win. Will the committee have the guts to give the West Coast Conference a second bid to go along with Gonzaga?
The questions go on and on.
There are some who insist a team shouldn’t be allowed in without a .500 conference record, but others say a 7-9 record in the ACC is equivalent to a winning record in another conference. Miami, Maryland and N.C. State entered the ACC tournament with 7-9 league records.
“I feel sorry for the teams that are 7-9,” North Carolina coach Roy Williams said. “I honestly believe the 7-9 teams in this league are among the top 64 teams in the country, and they may not get in.”
Only the Wolfpack had a shot after the Hurricanes and Terps were bounced in the first round Thursday. N.C. State bettered its chances significantly with a victory against No. 3 Wake Forest on Friday night. But even Georgia Tech (19-10), with an 8-8 ACC record, didn’t feel good about its chances – until winning against likely No. 1 seed North Carolina on Saturday to reach the ACC championship game.
“We have a chance to take all doubt out of the equation,” Yellow Jackets coach Paul Hewitt said, “so our mind-set was to come in and win the first game and see if we can keep it going through the weekend so we don’t have to talk about the bubble.”
Bowlsby dismissed the notion that only teams with .500 conference records are considered.
“One of the commonly held misconceptions is that there’s something magic about a .500 record in league play,” Bowlsby said.
He went on to say conference strength strongly is considered, so an ACC team with a sub-.500 record could get the nod over a winning team from a weaker conference.
“The reason the ACC is rated so high is they’ve got a number of teams that have impressive resumes, and that’s who those other people in the league have to play against every day,” Bowlsby said. “
Does that mean the Wolfpack is in? Or not? We’ll find out soon enough.
For every bubble team that makes the cut, there will be another one equally worthy that didn’t. It’s what makes the committee’s job so hard. And Selection Sunday so wonderful.
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