It’s no wonder that Mainers are worried about the economy.

A Critical Insights survey released last week says that 50 percent of those asked think the economy is in worse shape now than it was a year ago. Only 10 percent of respondents said it’s better. The survey also showed a major increase in pessimism, with 51 percent saying that the economy would do worse in the coming year. Six months ago, only 25 percent said the economy would do worse in the next year.

What happened?

On the national level, job creation and consumer confidence have been consistently inconsistent. One month, job numbers beat all expectations. In April, the national economy created 274,000 new jobs. In May, the number dropped to just 78,000, about 100,000 below expectations and well below the number needed to keep up with population growth.

But the real shot to Mainers’ confidence came closer to home. Critical Insights conducted its telephone survey from May 12-19. On May 13, Black Friday, the state learned that three military facilities in the state were on the Pentagon’s list for closure or significant reductions. Talk of the impending impact has dominated discussion – with a couple of side notes – about the state’s financial health. The State Planning Office estimates the closures and reductions could cost the state 12,000 jobs and more than $450 million a year in economic activity.

Add the base closure news to the sharp rhetoric used to attack the budget passed by the Legislature this year, and it’s easy to understand why Mainers might have a pessimistic view of their economic futures. The budget relies on about $450 million in borrowing to balance, and a group of Republican lawmakers has started a people’s veto effort to derail the law. The instability caused by the effort, along with a continuing structural gap between state revenue and expected expenditures, has led to a minor downgrade in the state’s bond rating.

These are serious issues, and people are right to be concerned.

But there’s also some good news. According to the survey, 54 percent say they aren’t worried about losing their jobs, an improvement from last fall, when 47 percent said they felt secure. Maine’s population is growing, with the state adding more than 6,600 residents last year. All of the jobs lost during the 2001 recession have been gained back, and, in the first three quarters of 2004, personal income in the state grew by 5.4 percent. The state is expected to end the fiscal year with a small surplus of about $30 million.

None of that trumps the challenges the state faces, but it does provide the context of progress that has been made even as the state has struggled to overcome declining federal financial support and a sluggish national economy.