Raising the excise tax on cigarettes from $1 to $2 is estimated to raise $125 million more in excise tax revenue in two years’ time.

While impressive, that estimate is low, given current smoking rates.

There are about 260,000 smokers in Maine. If each smokes, as the average smoker does, 15 cigarettes a day, that equals about 1.4 billion cigarettes in a year, or 71.1 million packs. Double that figure over two years and we get 142.3 million packs sold – each producing an extra $1 in excise tax.

That’s $142.3 million more for Maine every two years.

While good for revenue (if smokers don’t revert to online and illegal sales), every sale is bad for Maine. The added tax revenue will never be enough to make up the loss of life and elevated health-care costs that follow cigarettes.

The short-term financial gain, while helpful, is not nearly as important as the long-term gain of eliminating smoking entirely, cutting health-care and disability costs, and increasing worker productivity. When that happens, the cost of government programs – and the taxes they require – will shrink.