AUGUSTA (AP) – Economic analysts from inside and outside state government gathered Thursday for a mini-retreat with a new item on their customary agenda – the potential impact from decisions by the Base Realignment and Closure Commission.

Members of two panels of forecasters agreed with the obvious – that developments affecting military facilities in Maine bear close watching. They also received briefing material from the state Labor Department underscoring the importance of the facilities to the Maine economy.

Addressing the Portsmouth Naval Shipyard in Kittery, the Labor Department analysis predicted that in Maine towns nearest the shipyard “the direct loss of 2,771 jobs by Maine residents would increase the number of unemployed in the region threefold and cause the unemployment rate to spike from 3.5 percent to 8.1 percent.”

Despite advanced skills in certain trades, “the knowledge, skills and experience of those workers are not directly transferable to most industries in the region,” the report said.

The Labor Department said employment projections to 2012 for southern Maine suggest a continuing decline in manufacturing jobs.

“Based upon past experience with base closings, plant closings and major work force reductions, it is likely that most of the displaced workers will experience a substantial drop in earnings upon re-employment and that some will choose to move to another region in order to find suitable employment,” the report said.

The Pentagon says closing Portsmouth would save $21 million initially, then $129 million annually by shifting work to yards at Norfolk, Va., Pearl Harbor, Hawaii, and Puget Sound, Wash.

The Pentagon says the closure would cost about 9,000 jobs, direct and indirect, but officials in Maine and New Hampshire have argued the total could be nearly twice as high.

The Pentagon also has proposed a dramatic reduction of the Brunswick Naval Air Station by moving all of its P-3 Orion and C-130 Hercules squadrons and about 2,300 military personnel to the Jacksonville Naval Air Station in Florida.

Realignment of the air station “would displace just 61 civilian workers” but “the removal of 2,317 military personnel, along with their spouses and children, would result in a population loss in the area of perhaps 4,500 to 5,000,” the Labor Department said.

“Such a dramatic loss in population (would) have an obvious adverse impact on local demand for goods and services. The State Planning Office estimates that the direct impact of job and earnings losses will total 2,461 jobs and $69.5 million in earnings. The indirect impact will be an additional 2,194 jobs and $65.4 million in earnings,” the Labor Department report said.

Also targeted for closing is the Defense Finance Accounting Service center in Limestone.

“The direct loss of 310 DFAS jobs would increase the number of unemployed in the region by nearly one-third and cause the unemployment rate to spike from 5.1 percent to 6.7 percent,” the Labor Department said.

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