In a few more weeks, the dog days of August will make their annual appearance. Our lawns will take on a brownish tinge, the goldenrods will begin to show, and an occasional leaf will drop to the ground. Then comes fall. Hard to believe. Our spring – the one that was a record-setter for cold, wet weather – is not that distant a memory.

By early September, most upland bird hunters have started making preparations. I’ll be among them. My English setter Sally will get some time afield. She hasn’t forgotten most of the drill, but a little refresher is good for us both. Diane and I will waste a few boxes of skeet loads in attempts to pulverize a crate of clay targets out back.

We, along with most upland bird hunters, will be watching and wondering as the October opening approaches. The question pops up every fall like those autumn mushrooms – will there be any birds?

If you are a devoted bird hunter and gun dog addict, who routinely follows the relationship between weather patterns and game bird abundance, you already have a sneaky feeling that the news in this regard is not inspiring. Let’s look at what we know.

It was a nasty spring with unusually cold and wet weather. According to the National Weather Service, average spring temperatures were below normal. There were a number of storms and a lot of rain. According to U.S Fish and WIldlife biologist Mark McCollough, several areas set records for spring precipitation.

This is not what upland bird hunters want to hear. McCollough notes that both turkeys and ruffed grouse are ground-nesting birds that are particularly susceptible to the vagaries of our spring weather.

According to McCollough, both species nest in shallow depressions typically at the base of a tree or under a brush pile. Egg-laying commences in early May, and hens lay an egg every day or two until the clutch is complete. Average clutch size for ruffed grouse and turkeys is about 11 eggs. Hens begin incubation once all the eggs are laid to ensure that the eggs hatch simultaneously. Incubation takes about 24 days for grouse and 28 days for turkeys. Therefore, the timing of cold and rain events in May is most critical for affecting nesting success. The most devastating effect of weather occurs during the late incubation and early brood-rearing period in late May and early June.

A number of studies have shown that turkey brood counts drop considerably when spring temperatures are below average and rainfall is above average. In all probability, this would also hold true for ruffed grouse populations. Biologists speculate that cold, damp weather also gives an advantage to predators that prey on turkey poults and grouse chicks.

Interestingly, newborn grouse chicks rely pretty much on a diet of insects, “a source of protein that encourages quick muscle and feather growth,” reports McCollough. He also explains that during cold, wet weather, grouse chicks depend upon the hen for body warmth. This cold weather means more time brooding and less time for the chicks to feed. In fact, research in West Virginia showed that low temperatures and rain for more than 12 hours can cause the death of wild turkey poults.

So what are upland birds hunters to expect this fall? McCollough says that in a good year about 50 percent of ruffed grouse chicks even make it to fall. In poor years, chick survival ranges from 10 percent to zero. Obviously, the grouse prospects aren’t good. But as we saw last fall, nature is full of surprises. Science notwithstanding, you just never know. In October of 2004, grouse numbers were all over the board, depending upon which part of our state you were hunting. Worthy of note may be the fact that Northern and Downeast Maine experienced the most precipitation during the month of May. So maybe grouse numbers in Central, Southern and Western Maine will be sufficient to give our long-confined setters and pointers some action afield.

Meantime, as McCollough reminds us, there is some good news beneath the gloom. Despite all the unseasonal weather, surviving adult birds – turkeys and ruffed grouse – are remarkably resilient. Nature has a way. The wet spring will result in an increase in the quality of fall mast crops that will help adult birds fatten up for the long, hard winter.

V. Paul Reynolds is editor of the Northwoods Sporting Journal. He is also a Maine Guide, co-host of a weekly radio program “Maine Outdoors” heard Sundays at 7 p.m. on The Voice of Maine News-Talk Network (WVOM-FM 103.9, WCME-FM 96.7) and former information officer for the Maine Dept. of Fish and Wildlife. His e-mail address is [email protected].