The Dallas Morning News

AUSTIN, Texas – The first time George W. Bush ran for office, Karl Rove was a campaign issue.

An opponent accused Bush of having moderate, East Coast Republicans “such as Karl Rove” directing his 1978 Midland, Texas, race for Congress, an ill-fated bid in which Rove was barely involved.

Future campaigns would be different: Rove would be completely in charge, and Bush would never lose again.

“There’s no President Bush without Karl Rove,” said Democratic consultant Chuck McDonald. “He’s the indispensable man.”

The firestorm over reports that Rove discussed CIA operative Valerie Plame with journalists has been dampened, at least temporarily, by President Bush’s appointment of a Supreme Court justice. But analysts say the ongoing federal investigation – in which Bush has promised to fire anyone in the White House who broke the law – could yet test one of the most enduring loyalties in American politics.

Few presidents have had closer advisers than Rove inside the White House. And few counselors have been as responsible for a president’s political success.

Those who have watched the Rove-Bush relationship from its Texas days say it’s inconceivable that the president would throw his trusted adviser overboard if no law has been violated.

“Loyalty is numero uno with George Bush,” said Royal Masset, a Republican consultant in Austin. “He would be disloyal to Rove if he fired him over something where he felt Rove was acting in his interest.”

Said Mark McKinnon, the Austin strategist who has handled Bush’s ad campaigns: “He brings great policy acumen and a lot of other assets to the table that most political consultants don’t.”

Rove is not granting interviews. White House press secretary Scott McClellan, having initially assured reporters that Rove was not involved, now declines to comment, citing the investigation by special prosecutor Patrick Fitzgerald into leaks that led to columnist Robert Novak and then Time magazine identifying Plame, wife of Ambassador Joseph Wilson, as a CIA operative.

White House Chief of Staff Andrew Card, who early in the administration said, “It’s Karl’s job to make sure that we understand the day after tomorrow,” was more guarded last week, allowing only that Rove was doing his job.

Allies and political analysts say Rove and Bush typically talk every day, often several times. But they don’t know whether Rove informed the president before discussing Plame. Both Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney have been questioned by prosecutors.

The ties between Rove and the Bush family go back decades. Rove worked for the father in the early 1970s when the elder Bush was chairman of the Republican National Committee.

By 1988, Rove was promoting Bush to Texas reporters as a future GOP star. And two years later, Republican colleague Ken Luce remembers Rove outlining a detailed blueprint for making Bush governor, then president.

Rove said, “If George wants to, George can be governor. George can be president. This is how it would work,” according to Luce’s recollection of the 1990 meeting.

Political observers say the secret of their chemistry is that Bush and Rove came from different worlds, but complement each other in key ways.

The young Bush was handsome, charismatic, a product of the Ivy League and namesake of a notable political bloodline.

Rove was, by his own admission, a “geek” who never graduated from college but possessed a keen intellect, a gift for political strategy and an insatiable desire to reach the White House.

Texas analysts say it was Rove who persuaded Bush, then managing general partner for the Texas Rangers, to run for governor in 1994.

He assembled a campaign team and organized tutoring sessions to educate Bush in the details of Texas government.

“I’ve been fortunate enough to be in the right place at the right time,” Rove said in a 2003 interview. “I came to Texas when Texas was changing, went along with the change and had a friendship with somebody who got elected governor of Texas and got elected president.”

Physically, in Bush’s first term as president, Rove toiled upstairs in a second-floor West Wing office, last used by Hillary Rodham Clinton when her husband was president.

His title, “senior adviser” to the president, belied his influence. And when long-time Bush aide Karen Hughes left three years ago, there was scuttlebutt that there’d be no one to keep him in check, or at least act as a counter-balance.

His White House portfolio in the first term included political and intergovernmental affairs, public outreach and his own Office of Strategic Initiatives.

Hailed by Bush as “the architect” of his 2004 re-election strategy, Rove got a new title as deputy White House chief of staff and expanded responsibilities in the second term.

He now formally coordinates issues for four White House councils: domestic policy, economic, national security and homeland security.

It’s all a “natural extension” of his old duties, he says, likening himself an “air traffic controller.”

His new office, across from the corner suite of Chief of Staff Card, has been repainted. Maybe pumpkin, Rove mused as he settled for the second term, “or sort of creamy yellow, sort of brownish.”

He works with two computers, one laptop and one desktop, and has a secure telephone. On the road, he’s often glued to his cell phone, or thumbing messages back and forth on his Blackberry.

“He’s always been involved in policy. He’s even more involved today,” said Republican National Committee chairman Ken Mehlman, a Rove protege.

Rove is also a crucial ambassador to key Republican constituencies, particularly conservatives.

“He’s certainly an important link to them,” Mehlman said.

Cheney and Card are more often the heavy go-to guys on crucial issues on Capitol Hill, but Rove’s role as political guru and domestic-policy tactician has made him a high-value asset – and high-profile target of Democrats.

In the second term, Rove – and Mehlman at the RNC – are also the keys to developing the enduring Republican majority that Bush surely envisions as part of his legacy.

“Rove will be important to that,” said Bruce Buchanan, professor of government at the University of Texas. “It’s not vital that he do that from the White House, but it would be nice to have the president’s blessing in that.”

Austin political consultant Bill Miller, who has watched the Rove-Bush relationship close-up for years, said that despite Bush’s reluctance, Rove might become such a liability he has to leave the White House.

“He becomes the lighting rod for everything about Bush,” said Miller. “Karl’s going to carry the karmic weight of Bush’s future if he stays.”

Leaving would likely be the toughest decision Rove has ever made, he said.

“When you have your dream,” said Miller, “are you strong enough to walk away because it’s the right thing for the person who made that dream come true?”