By Lindsay Tice,Staff Writer

For years, Maine officials have bragged that nearly nine out of every 10 students graduate from high school.

That boasting may soon end.

Maine is changing the way it figures high school graduation rates after a national nonprofit said the numbers were wrong and dropouts were a much bigger problem than Maine and other states were reporting.

In the past, Maine got its graduation rate by dividing the number of diploma recipients by the number of high school dropouts in each grade plus the number of diploma recipients. The formula was approved by the U.S. Department of Education.

The problem? The information wasn’t always accurate. For example, a student who left school and returned, then left school and returned again, was counted as a dropout multiple times.

The new formula tracks ninth-grade students over four years, eliminating the inaccuracies. The state will also start using a long-planned student database, allowing it to track kids from school to school.

“I think that will make a huge difference,” said Patrick Phillips, deputy education commissioner.

State education officials didn’t know how the new formula would affect Maine’s official 87 percent graduation rate. But some education experts, including Lewiston Superintendent Leon Levesque, believe tracking students will show far fewer are earning diplomas.

“I think the dropout rate is higher than the state thinks it is,” said Levesque. “(The rate has) been unacceptable.”

He believes 20 percent of Maine students drop out. That would lower the graduation rate from 87 to 80 percent.

The Education Trust, the national nonprofit that took states to task for their graduation rates, believes Maine’s numbers may be even lower. In its national report in June, it gave the rate as 72 percent.

But the report used 2000-01 figures and a formula that “approximates the probability” that a ninth-grader would graduate on time. Dare Hall, policy analyst for The Education Trust, said her group’s figures were an estimate.

“We’re certainly not saying these are the right numbers,” she said.

Maine decided to change the way it figures graduation rates in July when Gov. John Baldacci signed a compact with 46 other governors. In it, they agreed to calculate high school graduates the same way, improve the way they collect data and report on their progress every year.

Maine will release the graduation rate for the 2004-05 school year this fall using the old formula. Officials plan to use the new formula for the 2005-06 school year.