There are two lessons that can be learned from the success of the Maine Military Authority.

First, no matter how unwise the decision to close three military bases in Maine would be, the state will survive.

Second, no matter what the Pentagon says, it has a spotty track record on anticipating the demands of a rapidly changing worldwide battlefield.

The Maine Military Authority, located at the former Loring Air Force Base, employs 540 people who refurbish military equipment. Right now, the operation is concentrating on Humvees, the all-purpose vehicles that have taken a particular beating in Iraq. With demand surging, the MMA is able to repair many of the damaged vehicles it receives for a fraction of the cost of a new one, while updating them with more powerful engines and suspensions better suited to carrying armor.

The Limestone workshops, which take advantage of buildings abandoned when the Air Force moved out, is picking up the slack created because two other Army depots – in Pennsylvania and Texas – reached their capacity. Even so, there’s a backlog of equipment needing work with Army and National Guard units waiting for them.

Business is booming, a consequence of brutal, nonlinear fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan. That’s helped the Limestone area rebound from the loss of its air base.

But the lack of capacity for Humvee repair and outfitting should cause the Bush administration and the Base Realignment and Closure Commission to move carefully before closing Portsmouth Naval Shipyard and the Brunswick Naval Air Station. Portsmouth provides important capacity for the submarine repair and Brunswick is a vital national defense air strip. Once capacity is gone, it’s almost impossible to replace.

Two lessons to learn.

There is success to be had around former military bases, after tough periods of adjustment and decline. And the Pentagon is not always the best predictor of how much capacity it will need down the road.

Two lessons to learn.

Are decision-makers paying attention?