I readily confess that when it comes to Bill Belichick, I drank the Kool Aid long ago. In fact, if I recall correctly, I took my first sip moments after Super Bowl XXXVI to wash the putrid aftertaste of a Swisher Sweets cigar out of my mouth.

So I will concede that my optimism about the 2005 New England Patriots is tinged with blind faith. But I must also add that when it comes to this season, I would have to be a Cleveland Browns fan before I give the football pundits the benefit of the doubt over Foxboro’s glowering genius.

If you’ve paid attention to the published and televised preseason publications, then you know by now that the New England Patriots have once again been cast aside by many of the so-called experts. The Indianapolis Colts are once again the darlings of the punditry, with a few other candidates thrown in — the Philadelphia Eagles, the Minnesota Vikings, and the Pittsburgh Steelers most numerously.

But it’s when Sports Illustrated tabbed the Carolina Panthers as the Super Bowl XL champions that I finally realized that most of these folks are really eager for excuses not to pick the Patriots to win title No. 4.

Now, this isn’t going to turn into a screed about how the Patriots don’t get any respect. Most members of the media today bend over backwards to praise the Pats, even when they’re picking against them. They brown-nose Belichick. They brown-nose Tom Brady. They might even send a little love Corey Dillon’s way.

But then, since a lot of them can’t name more than three Patriots, they move on to what New England doesn’t have. No Charlie Weis, no Romeo Crennel, no Tedy Bruschi, no Ty Law, no Ted Johnson, etc.

Significant losses all. But not all irreplaceable. In fact, I’d argue Bruschi is the only irreplaceable one, for what he brought to the team on and off the field. I’m a big fan of Weis’ game-planning and play-calling ability, and what seems to be shaping up as an offensive coordinator by committee that is replacing him is unproven. But it always comes down to players executing plays.

And that’s why I think everybody’s missing the boat on the Patriots. They’re zooming in on the losses and forgetting what they still have, which I believe will prove to be the most talented team of the Belichick era and the one with the most playmakers.

Just go by the units. Everyone on the offensive line, with the exception of Logan Mankins, is entering the prime of their career, and there is more depth in that unit than ever. The same came be said for the wide receivers, with the exception of Troy Brown and Tim Dwight, both of whom I’ll take as slot receivers any day of the week. I think most people would agree that the best is still to come from Brady, and Dillon, based on limited preseason exposure, hasn’t lost a step.

On the other side, the defensive line is scary. Richard Seymour’s contract is settled, Ty Warren could be poised for a breakout year, and Vince Wolfork has a year in the 3-4 under his belt. Chad Brown and Monty Beisel are question marks in the middle, no doubt, but some folks are a little too quick to assume that it’s going to be 2002 all over again, with the opposition running rough shod up the gut of the defense. Give them six weeks to get used to the system, and if they’re still lying on the turf with cleat marks on their back, then I’ll be worried.

The outside linebackers are all set. It sounds like Mike Vrabel will be back soon, and Rosevelt Colvin is another year off his hip injury and closer to regaining his old form. The secondary is obviously much deeper than it was last year, and you can’t tell me the trial by fire from last season didn’t help guys like Asante Samuel, Eugene Wilson and Randall Gay.

The first half of the Patriots’ schedule is brutal, and I wouldn’t be shocked if they were 3-3 at the bye week. That means they’ll probably finish somewhere around 12-4 or even 11-5, and that probably means they won’t have home field advantage again.

This, of course, is the biggest factor that the doubters are hanging their hats on. For the last two years, we’ve been hearing how things would have been different if the Colts had home field advantage. This just may be the year they finally have it. And, not surprisingly, the doubters have a home playoff game against the Pats as an automatic W’. This, incidentally, for an Indianapolis team that has never, ever beaten anybody in a home playoff game during the Peyton Manning era except for the Denver Broncos.

The majority of the media is so convinced that this is the way the 2005 season will play out that I can’t help but feel even more confident that the Patriots are, at the least, headed to the Super Bowl. If there’s one thing I’ve learned in my 35 years, it’s that any time the media is so overwhelmingly certain that something is going to happen, the opposite always ends up happening. For evidence, I give you the 2003-04 L.A. Lakers, who still haven’t won the NBA title everyone thought they were destined for.

I also give you the AFC divisional playoffs, when the Colts were supposed to exploit a decimated New England secondary. How’d that work out?

They never learn. And I hope they never will.

Randy Whitehouse is a staff writer. He can be reached by e-mail at [email protected]