From The Associated Press and staff reports

PORTLAND – Two polls released Tuesday suggest that most Mainers oppose a referendum to repeal a law that protects gays from discrimination on the Nov. 8 ballot.

Both polls showed the pro-gay-rights side ahead by comfortable margin of about 30 points.

But, given previous elections in which polls showed Mainers favored gay rights by wide margins, then voted down gay rights, those watching were cautious as to how to interpret the results.

On Tuesday, Mainers will vote on whether they want to reject the new law that protects people from discrimination in employment, housing, education, public accommodations and credit based on their sexual orientation. Legislators passed the law in March. It was put on hold after conservative Christian groups collected signatures to force a people’s veto.

A Strategic Marketing Services omnibus poll says that 58 percent of respondents who were registered to vote and likely to cast ballots planned to vote “no,” or were leaning that way, on Question 1.

About 28 percent said they would vote “yes” in favor of rejecting the law or were leaning that way; 14 percent said they were undecided.

In a separate poll by Critical Insights, 62 percent of the respondents said they would vote against repealing the law, while 29 percent said they would vote to reject the law. Nine percent were undecided.

Ted O’Meara, an adviser for Maine Won’t Discriminate, said he wasn’t surprised by the results, but added that polls showed similar support for gay rights referendums before they were voted down in past years. Maine Won’t Discriminate is leading the campaign to oppose the move to repeal the law.

“I think it’s an accurate reflection of how Maine people feel about this issue. But like any poll it’s a snapshot in time and doesn’t necessarily reflect turnout,” O’Meara said. “It all comes down to how many people actually vote. And that’s what our whole campaign is geared toward this final week – getting people out to vote.”

Tim Russell, spokesman for the Christian Civic League, could not be immediately reached for comment. The organization has spearheaded the campaign to repeal the law.

Christian Potholm, a pollster and professor of government at Bowdoin College, cautioned that the 30-point spread between supporters and opponents does not mean that voters will keep the anti-discrimination law.

“It’s going to be closer than the polls,” Potholm said. If 100 percent of registered voters vote on Nov. 8, Potholm predicted Mainers would pass a law to protect gays from discrimination by a 60-40 ratio. “But 100 percent of voters aren’t going to show. I don’t think we’ll have 80 percent or 60 percent,” he said.

“I haven’t met anyone all atwitter about voting” except for young college students and Evangelicals, Potholm said. “For the rest of Mainers, this is old news. It’s ‘we’ve done this before,'” he said, referring to two earlier gay rights votes that were both rejected.

As for other poll subjects, Mainers gave President Bush an even lower job performance than national polls.

Only 30 percent of those polled said they approve of Bush’s job performance. Another 65.3 percent disapproved, and 4.8 percent said they didn’t know, according to the Strategic Marketing poll.

When asked whether the war in Iraq was worth the costs, 64 percent said no; 32 percent said yes, and 5 percent said they didn’t know.

The Strategic Marketing Services poll was based on a random survey of 400 Mainers conducted between Oct. 22 and Oct. 26. Strategic Marketing Services said there was a margin of error of 5 percentage points.

The Critical Insights poll surveyed 600 likely registered voters from Oct. 21 to Oct. 29. The company said the poll has a margin of error of 4 percentage points.

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