WASHINGTON (AP) – The administration’s point man on tightening welfare requirements says he senses that Congress is closer to making significant changes to the program than at any time during President Bush’s tenure.

“I can almost taste it,” said Wade Horn, an assistant secretary within the Health and Human Services Department.

Democratic lawmakers don’t believe Horn is correct, but say that if he is, the overhaul will occur without bipartisan support.

Bush has proposed that participants work longer hours to maintain eligibility for cash assistance and other forms of aid. He also wants to raise the bar for states by requiring that a greater percentage of their welfare population find work – or the states risk financial penalties.

Since the original legislation calling for changes in welfare expired in 2002, Congress has approved 11 short-term extensions. A more permanent extension requires reauthorization of the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families program.

But lawmakers have been unable to agree on how to do that – mainly because of money.

The House included welfare changes within a bill that reduces government spending by $50 billion over the next five years. The Senate also approved a bill cutting spending by $35 billion. Once negotiators from both chambers bridge the differences, they will submit a final “reconciliation bill” that cannot be filibustered. That means supporters would have to find only 51 votes in the Senate – not 60.

Horn’s optimism stems from history. The welfare legislation approved in 1996 was also part of reconciliation legislation that could not be filibustered.

Rep. Sander Levin, D-Mich., noting that 98 Democratic representatives voted for changes to the welfare program back in 1996, said he senses no Democratic support for the legislation passed by the House.

The changes approved in 1996 set limits on how long people could obtain cash assistance. Since the law went into effect, the welfare rolls have dropped from about 4.4 million families to under 2 million.

The president and many lawmakers say, however, that momentum has stalled. Adults don’t leave the rolls as easily as they once did. The administration’s proposal to change that trend includes new benchmarks that states will have to meet.

Under current law, states are supposed to move 50 percent of adults on welfare into jobs or face financial penalties. However, most states have earned enough credit from earlier reductions in their welfare rolls to avoid the penalties, Horn said.

“About 60 percent of persons on welfare in the last month did not do one hour of any activity related to work or becoming employed,” Horn said. “This is stunning. It really is stunning.”

The House bill would gradually increase the minimum threshold for states so that 70 percent of their welfare participants would have to be in jobs. Failure to meet that rate could mean the loss of some of the $16.6 billion Congress sets aside annually for the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families block grants.

The bill also would change work requirements for individuals. Currently, participants must work at least 20 hours weekly and perform an additional 10 hours of work-related activities, such as job training. The measure approved by the House would require 24 hours of work and 16 hours of additional work-related activities.

“When we talk about work, we mean full-time work, not because we want to be mean, but because we want that person and that family to be lifted out poverty,” Horn said. “A focus on part-time work doesn’t get you there. A focus on full-time work does.”

The Congressional Budget Office estimated that states would face $8.3 billion in additional costs over five years as a result of the House-approved provisions. Those costs include $4.2 billion to operate work programs and $4.1 billion to provide child-care subsidies. The House bill provides an additional $500 million to help states fund child care.

Levin said his biggest complaint is that the 40-hour requirement would lead to the creation of what he calls “workfare,” or jobs that the public sector creates specifically for welfare participants so states meet federal guidelines.

“They don’t provide people with the skills, the steps on the ladder that they need to make it today,” Levin said.

Sharon Parrott, director of welfare policy at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, said states would face new budget problems if the legislation passes. She said they would have to put up more of their own money, cut programs to pay for welfare-to-work programs, or simply make it as difficult as possible for people to qualify for the program.

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On the Net:

Administration for Children and Families: http://www.acf.hhs.gov/

Center on Budget and Policy Priorities: http://www.cbpp.org

AP-ES-11-26-05 0332EST

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