St. Paul Pioneer Press

ST. PAUL, Minn. – Linda Ting of St. Paul is wondering if she can count on Northwest Airlines to get her to Houston and back next month to visit family.

All this talk of strike votes at the airline has her worried. Like other travelers, she’s trying to assess the odds of a strike and what she could do if Northwest is indeed grounded.

“I find it extremely frustrating that we can have tickets booked on Northwest and all that could be lost,” she said.

She bought her tickets three weeks ago, before the pilots announced they would take a strike vote. If the pilots do strike, they’ll no doubt shut down Northwest, as they did for 15 days in 1998.

But there is a big difference this time. The pilots and Northwest know a strike could also mean the end of the airline. Both sides have acknowledged that in filings in the Northwest bankruptcy case.

The Eagan, Minn.-based airline is in the final stages of its campaign to extract $1.4 billion in annual savings from its workers, cutting wages, benefits and jobs. It’s a key part of its plan to emerge as a profitable airline after losing billions of dollars in recent years.

At Como Rose Travel in St. Paul, owner Marsha Boie says travelers are clearly thinking more about Northwest’s labor woes. But they’re not spooked.

“Our customers are concerned but they are continuing to book Northwest, as they have in previous months,” she said. “Very few have booked away.”

Terry Trippler, a Minneapolis-based travel expert for cheapseats.com, estimated an “80 percent chance” that Northwest will nail down contracts with its unions and keep flying.

“How nervous are you?” said Trippler. “That’s the question you have to answer. Would I buy a ticket for travel on Northwest after March 1? Yes.”

Of course, the unions with all their strike talk want to get travelers worried about Northwest. If they can cost Northwest some business, that might soften the airline’s demands at the bargaining table, they must figure.

Yet if and when Northwest unions could – or would – strike is unclear.

Here are some key dates: Pilots wrap up their voting on whether to authorize a strike on Feb. 28. Ground workers will finish voting on a new contract – and a strike if the pact is rejected – March 3. For flight attendants, voting ends March 6. Even if strikes are approved, it doesn’t mean they will happen. And they aren’t likely to happen right away.

But first, a key moment comes Feb. 24, when bankruptcy judge Allan Gropper is once again slated to rule on Northwest’s request to nix its contracts with pilots and flight attendants. Those unions say they could strike if the judge tosses out the pacts and Northwest imposes its own terms.

They insist they could legally strike. But Northwest says such strikes would be illegal and it would seek court orders to prevent them.

Other strategic, legal and regulatory questions abound.

How long would the pilots hold the strike card before playing it, maximizing their gain from just the threat of a strike?

If a strike were legal, would the usual prestrike 30-day cooling-off period apply? Would President Bush intervene to halt a strike?

While all the saber rattling worries some leisure travelers, it’s not bothering most local corporate travel managers responsible for booking hundreds, if not thousands, of flights every month.

People in those jobs have heard talk of airline bankruptcies and threatened strikes for years.

They’re figuring Northwest and its unions will settle without a strike, said Marty Wahoske, spokesman for the North Central Business Travel Association and travel manager at Golden Valley, Minn.-based Tennant Co.

“Are we booking off of Northwest because of the threat of a strike?” he said. “The answer is: No.”

Northwest, though, has to be feeling the effect of people booking away from it, particularly among more easily spooked leisure travelers, said Trippler.

He said he’s had some 20 travel agents tell him that some travelers unnerved by the strike talk are avoiding Northwest. The airline, meanwhile, won’t comment.

Right now, Hobbit Travel isn’t advising customers to avoid Northwest. But that will change if the judge tosses Northwest contracts and pilots vote to strike, said owner George Wozniak.

Finding seats on another carrier could be tough for folks looking to escape to warmer climes in March and early April. “There are very few seats left,” said Wozniak, who also is an investor in Mendota Heights, Minn.-based Sun Country Airlines, a Northwest competitor.

Meanwhile, worried traveler Ting’s husband, Siktoh, complained the public is getting caught in crossfire of Northwest’s labor fight. “The traveler is like a pawn in a big game.”

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(c) 2006, St. Paul Pioneer Press (St. Paul, Minn.).

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