The Dallas Morning News

This month, the death march of the DVD will begin.

Just as DVDs replaced VHS tapes, two new formats capable of displaying high-definition video will begin the drive to consign DVDs to bargain bins and yard sales.

But although consumers stand to benefit from the new technology, it’s almost certain that only one format will survive, which means that many users will end up stuck with the digital equivalent of Betamax tapes.

Movie players and disks built around the HD-DVD standard will hit stores in late March. Devices and disks built around the competing Blu-ray format will arrive a few months later.

In many ways, the releases seem premature, given the lack of a single format and the fact there are still fairly few people who own high-definition TVs.

But movie studios and electronics makers are eager to reinvigorate the slowing DVD revenue machine.

Consumers will benefit, too, as they finally get access to features that are either illegal or technically impossible with current DVDs.

Only about a quarter of U.S. televisions are expected to be capable of displaying HD video this year, and those are the only sets that will be able to take full advantage of the razor-sharp images on HD-DVD and Blu-ray disks.

But the adoption rate for HD-capable TV sets is expected to zoom past 50 percent by 2008.

Both formats cleared their final technical hurdles last week, when an industry consortium called the Advanced Access Content System Licensing Administrator issued near-final specifications for the anti-piracy software that will be used on HD-DVD and Blu-ray disks.

The biggest benefit of the new disks and players, of course, will be the ability to watch movies in full high-definition resolution.

Current DVDs do not display high-definition video because there is not enough capacity on the disks.

Steve Nickerson, senior vice president of market management at Warner Home Video, said people buying HD television sets are looking for something to watch.

“We’ve done an awful lot of consumer research, and initially the motivation for consumers about buying high-definition media will be the HD-quality pictures,” he said.

But eventually there will be other benefits as well, notably a feature called managed copy, which will finally bring many of the conveniences into the video realm that users have long enjoyed with music CDs.

Managed copy will allow users – with certain restrictions – to copy their HD-DVD or Blu-ray movies and TV shows to a computer hard drive or portable video device.

In theory, you could copy all your movies to a home server, and then stream them to any television in your house, like a massive video jukebox.

But the feature will not be available when the new technologies initially go on sale because the movie studios and other groups are still working to make sure that managed copy doesn’t throw open the door to rampant piracy.

Which will prevail?

Because HD-DVD and Blu-ray will offer nearly identical features, it’s hard to say which format will triumph.

Many analysts think that Blu-ray has a slight edge, for several reasons:

-Blu-ray disks can hold more data (50 gigabytes vs. 30 gigabytes).

-Dell Inc., the world’s largest computer maker, is currently backing Blu-ray but not HD-DVD.

-Some movie studios releasing Blu-ray movies currently have no plans to release HD-DVD movies.

-Sony plans to include a Blu-ray drive in its upcoming PlayStation 3 game console.

HD-DVD has its advantages, as well:

-Microsoft Corp. is backing HD-DVD and plans to heavily support the format in its upcoming Windows Vista operating system.

-HD-DVD movie players and disks are hitting the market first, and the first HD-DVD players will be less expensive than the first Blu-ray players ($500 vs. $1,000).

Without having to worry about vanquishing a competing standard, DVD players and movies eclipsed VCRs and videotapes in about a decade.

But industry experts disagree on whether the looming format showdown will ensure a longer lifespan for DVDs.