LEWISTON – A poll released Monday by a Maine firm paints a much different picture of the prospects for the Taxpayer Bill of Rights than a poll released just last week by a national company.

The survey, conducted by Portland’s Strategic Marketing Services, shows only 41.5 percent of respondents said they will either vote for TABOR or lean toward voting for it.

The poll found that 33.3 percent said they will vote against TABOR or are leaning toward a no vote, while 25.3 percent said they are undecided.

The numbers for TABOR have slipped since Strategic Marketing Services asked about the issue in July. Then, 54 percent of respondents said they would vote yes, 25 percent said they would vote no and 21 percent said they were undecided.

TABOR would place spending and taxation limits on state and local government and require a super-majority vote of a governing body and a referendum to override those limits.

“The anti-TABOR folks have picked up about eight points, but a lot of folks also moved into the undecideds,” said Patrick Murphy, the marketing service’s president. “The debate is on.”

Those numbers don’t square with a poll released last week that showed TABOR with overwhelming support.

Conducted by SurveyUSA for WCSH-TV and WLBZ-TV, the poll found that 70 percent of Mainers support TABOR, which will appear on the November ballot as Question 1, while 26 percent oppose the measure and only 5 percent are undecided.

The two polls were conducted within a few days of each other. SurveyUSA talked to Mainers Sept. 10-12, surveying 900 adults, of which 519 were considered likely voters. Strategic Marketing Services talked to 400 likely voters Sept. 16-21.

The margin of error is also similar. For SurveyUSA, which uses automated telephone calls, it was 4.4 percent. Strategic Marketing Services said its margin of error is 4.9 percent. The company uses trained survey takers to ask questions.

Murphy said that his TABOR numbers track with what happened during the campaign for a previous ballot initiative in 2004. Called the Palesky initiative after the advocate who led the effort to get in on the ballot, Carol Palesky, the tax cap plan built an early lead in polls but was ultimately defeated, 63 percent to 37 percent.

“Once people got back to work after Labor Day, they started to pay attention,” Murphy said. “People started talking and the buzz starts. I can only attribute this drop in support to that buzz” and the fact that selectman and town officials are starting to get the word out about what they think TABOR will do to communities.

Strategic Marketing also checked the support for candidates running for federal office.

Republican U.S. Sen. Olympia Snowe remains overwhelmingly popular with 72.8 percent of people saying they intend to vote for her or are leaning toward voting for here. That’s up from 67.8 percent in July.

Murphy describes Snowe as just “wildly popular.”

Democrat Jean Hay Bright actually lost a little ground since July, falling from 10.2 percent support then to 9.1 percent now. Independent William Slavick registered 2.1 percent support and 16.3 percent undecided.

Democratic congressional incumbents Tom Allen and Mike Michaud also posted advantages over their challengers.

Allen, who represents Maine’s 1st Congressional District, had support from 52.4 percent of respondents. His Republican challenger, Darlene Curly, registered 21.9 percent, and 22.8 percent said they were undecided.

In the 2nd Congressional District, Mike Michaud garnered the support of 49 percent of people. His Republican challenger, Scott D’Amboise, had the support of 13.9 percent, and 37.1 percent said they were undecided.

Strategic Marketing also asked about the gubernatorial race, which features Democratic Gov. John Baldacci, Republican Chandler Woodcock, Green Independent Pat LaMarche and independents Barbara Merrill and Phillip NaPier.

Those results, however, were not released publicly. Murphy was criticized in July for his gubernatorial numbers because he had done an issue survey for Baldacci before the June primary. He disclosed that information when he released the July poll, but critics questioned his credibility.

Because of the controversy, Murphy said he decided not to release his latest results on that race.