According to our latest poll, almost 50 percent of the 44th percentile will spend take the next 10 to 15 seconds (+/- 5 seconds) deciding whether to finish this column. Projections say 40 percent of you will, 40 percent of you won’t, with a 10 percent margin of error. The other 10 percent is undecided.

Confused yet? You should be. Election campaigns have a way of making finite calculations into abstract equations, depending on the day, issue and pollster. From now through Nov. 7, voters will be bombarded with figures designed to inform, educate, frighten, please,and most of all, persuade.

The fun started this week, with the release of polling data indicating the Taxpayer Bill of Rights isn’t nearly as popular as it was last week. Strategic Marketing Services, of Portland, polled 400 “likely voting” Mainers and found 41.5 percent were leaning toward TABOR, and 33.5 percent were against the government tax and expenditure limitation policy.

These numbers contradicted prior numbers from a WCSH-TV poll by SurveyUSA, in which 70 percent of “likely voters” supported TABOR, with 26 percent opposed. With only a few days between the polls, the disparity in results point to embellishment and/or fuzzy mathematics.

(The latest numbers from WCSH-TV/SurveyUSA now have TABOR supported by 23 percent of likely voters, with 22 percent opposed. A whopping 54 percent are now “not certain.” They must have seen the later poll figures.)

Campaigns live and die by numbers. Seasoned political observers spot trends – and inconsistencies – in polling results like barred owls hunting mice in a meadow. For average voters, however, all the incongruous values and competing voices create a cacophony from which it’s hard to make sense.

Not that sense is always possible. Polling data, according to those same hawkeyed veteran politicos, is sometimes worth what the public pays for it: nothing. Too many variables exist to create an accurate picture, which results in results like the two recent TABOR surveys.

In lieu of numbers, then, we advise paying detailed attention to the issues. The best candidate for Maine governor will emerge on strength of campaign platforms, not the glitz of poll numbers. And whether TABOR is right for Maine is based on its impact, not vague extrapolations from policy analysts or tales from Colorado.

The next six weeks promise the near-simultaneous release of studies, analyses, polls and projections designed to influence the outcome of Nov. 7. Don’t be fooled by the hype; let the issues and candidates speak for themselves, and vote with your head, not your pocket calculator.

After all, studies show it’s the only way that works 100 percent of the time.