LEWISTON – For the past two years, Democrats in the State House have desperately clung to slim majorities.

After more than three decades in the wilderness, Republicans say that this year – finally – could be the one when they wrest the reins of power away from Democrats and capture control of the House of Representatives.

During the 122nd Legislature, Democrats in the House numbered just 74 members, a plurality that relied upon three unenrolled members and the lone Green Independent for coalition majorities.

Republicans, with 73 seats, came close to power sharing early this year when Rep. Barbara Merrill of Appleton left the Democratic Party in anticipation of her Independent run for governor. Only a reversal by Rep. Joanne Twomey of Biddeford, who left the Republican Party in 2005, kept Democrats in control.

House Assistant Republican Leader Josh Tardy of Newport is confident that the tide in Maine has finally turned toward the right. When the ballots are counted on Nov. 7, Tardy said he believes Republicans will control between 80 and 82 seats.

Frustration with taxes, especially in places like Lewiston and Auburn, will give Republicans the push they need to get over the top, Tardy said.

Democrats are just as confident. Speaker John Richardson of Brunswick predicted his party will build a solid majority in the House, riding an anti-Republican national wave, a surging Gov. John Baldacci at the top of the ticket and a list of legislative accomplishments.

Democrats also have a few numbers working in their favor. They hold a registration advantage over Republicans among voters (although unenrolled voters outnumber either major party), they have to defend fewer open seats (6 vs. 13), and they have a candidate in all but one district, while there is no Republican candidate in five districts. All 151 House seats are up this year.

In the state Senate, Democrats hold a narrow, three-seat advantage, 19-16.

The tally is close enough that Republican strategists see a real opportunity to capture control.

All 35 seats are up for grabs, but many of them – barring something extraordinary – aren’t in play. Incumbents, regardless of party, hold a strong advantage.

Several local races play big roles in the electoral strategies of both parties. Here are some to watch.

House of Representatives

Auburn, District 68: Activist Sheila Desgrosseilliers is trying to pick up an open seat against Republican Michael Beaulieu. Both sides are optimistic because both candidates have deep roots in the community. Desgrosseilliers’ husband, Ed, is running in the overlapping Senate district, which could help with name identification. Beaulieu is well-spoken, direct and charismatic. It’s a contest.

Republican Rep. Tom Shields is term-limited. He won in 2004, beating the Democrat 2,669-1,497. A Green Independent candidate received 918 votes.

Auburn, District 70: Democrat Mark Samson is trying to hold onto the open seat created by the retirement of Rep. Sonya Sampson. He’s running against Republican Guy Carrier. Carrier tried for the seat in 2004, but fell short. Sampson won 2,642-2,070. Carrier shouldn’t have the same problem with name ID that a lot of challengers face because he has run before. Samson is a well-known local businessman.

Lewiston, District 73: This is a Democratic open seat that Republicans would love to take, and they’re counting on an anti-incumbent feeling to translate into a gain. Democrat Richard Wagner is running against Republican Laurier Lachance. Rep. Lillian LaFontaine O’Brien is termed out. She won handily in 2004, 2,716-1,280 against an independent challenger. Democrats have a huge enrollment advantage over Republicans in Lewiston, but Lachance currently sits on the school committee.

Farmington, District 89: Democratic incumbent Janet Mills can expect Republicans to put a massive effort into taking her seat. This is the hometown of Republican gubernatorial candidate Chandler Woodcock, and there will be a massive get-out-the-vote and absentee ballot efforts in this district by the GOP.

Mills is facing Republican Lance Harvell for the third time. In 2004, she narrowly beat him, 2,329-2,264. In 2002, Mills won, 1,504-1,356. Republicans have an enrollment advantage in Farmington, but Mills is a tough incumbent and a former prosecutor who will be hard to unseat. If there’s a Republican tide, it could begin in this district. As the GOP’s Tardy said, “The third time is the charm.”

Franklin and Oxford counties, points west, District 91: This district is huge, and voters are busted into distinct voting blocks centered around Bethel, Kingfield, Rangeley and Woodstock. Democrats would like to pick up this open seat, vacated by Republican Arlan Jodrey, who is term-limited. They’re putting up Tim Carter, who narrowly lost to Jodrey in 2004, 2,727-2,671. Carter is facing relative newcomer Nancy Bessey, a former energy executive who lives in Rangeley.

The House is so closely divided and the districts are so small (about 8,500 people) that every race counts. The biggest factor in a House race here is how hard a candidate works. Period. Every year, a couple of incumbents in both parties get knocked off. Usually, it’s a surprise.

State Senate

South Portland and Cape Elizabeth, District 7: Incumbent Democrat Lynn Bromley faces a tough challenge from Republican Rep. Kevin Glynn, who was termed out of the House. Glynn is tenacious – as his frequent trips before the state’s ethics commission suggest. Also in the race is Green Independent Keith Louis, who could pull votes from Bromley.

Oxford, District 13: Republican incumbent David Hastings is facing a rematch with Democrat Marjorie Medd. In 2004, the race was a nail-biter. Hastings topped Medd, 10,798-10,305. This time, there’s a third candidate in the mix, Independent Nelson Foley. Word has it that Foley was active in Ross Perot’s Reform Party and could pull votes from Hastings, especially among some social conservatives. This was a close race last time. It will be again.

Auburn, Durham and Poland, District 15: Give Republican Lois Snowe-Mello credit. While much of the political world was taking a summer breather or marching in parades, she’s been hard at work knocking on doors. Lots of doors. And she has a cadre of loyal supporters that she puts to work on her behalf. Snowe-Mello dislodged this seat from Democrat Neria Douglass two years ago, but she faces a tough challenge from Ed Desgrosseilliers, an atypical and active Democrat with deep roots in Auburn. To unseat a hard campaigner like Snowe-Mello will require Desgrosseilliers to run an almost perfect campaign, but the district’s landscape and a quality challenger give Democrats some hope.

In 2004, Douglass carried Auburn, but Snowe-Mello chalked up big wins in New Gloucester and Poland. That’s where Desgrosseilliers must make up ground.

Sagadahoc, District 19: Incumbent Sen. Arthur Mayo was elected twice as a Republican in this district. But in December 2004, he changed teams, giving Democrats their current 19-16 advantage in the Senate. Party switchers face particular perils when they seek re-election. The party the candidate left is angry and looking for revenge, and loyalty from the adopted party is not guaranteed.

Mayo was easily re-elected in 2004, winning 11,472 votes in a three-way race. This will be his first time facing voters as a Democrat. Republican Paula Benoit would love to take his job, but it’s tough to knock off an incumbent, even a party switcher.

Kennebec, District 21: West Gardiner Mayor Brian Rines is trying to hold on to a Democratic seat left open by the retirement of Sen. Scott Cowger. Republican Rep. Earle McCormick is trying to deliver a pick-up for the GOP. This seat is a point of pride for Democrats, who don’t want to relinquish it. Both men are well known and proven electoral winners. Republicans need just two seats to capture the gavel in the Senate, and open contests are usually the best shot for pick-ups.