It’s that time of year when coaches of contending Eastern Class A football teams get a little Crab-by.
With too many teams enrolled in both divisions of the Pine Tree Conference to permit a round-robin schedule and sort out the playoff picture on the field, both the Class A and Class B divisions in Eastern Maine use the Crabtree point standings to place teams on the playoff tree.
That causes fewer problems on the ‘B’ side, where eight of the league’s dozen teams will make the cut, anyhow. Any team checking in at .500 or better is almost certain to get its chance to advance.
As far as ‘A’ is concerned, well, the playoff chase is an almighty mess. Eleven schools line up for the eight-game regular season. Due to that odd number and the resulting need for a bye week during the season, for the second year in a row, there’s only enough time for a four-team playoff.
The problem is, seven teams currently can make a solid case that they’re a deserving regional semifinalist. All seven have winning records, and it’s possible that six could be above .500 when this weekend’s games are completed. And with few exceptions, every team has played well in its one or two losses.
There isn’t much math involved in calculating the Crabtree index. Simply figure out your team’s winning percentage, add it to the aggregate winning percentage of your eight opponents, and multiply that sum by 100.
For example: Edward Little is 4-2, for a winning percentage of .667. The Red Eddies’ opponents are 18-23 thus far, or .439. Combine the two, move the decimal point two places to the right and EL ends up with an index of 110.56, or 110.5691 if you don’t round off the first two factors.
Right now, it puts EL fifth, or on the outside, looking in.
One obvious loophole in the Crabtree system is that it doesn’t specifically reward quality wins. The PTC schedule is in a two-year, home-and-home cycle, so strength of schedule (half the Crabtree equation) is basically a luck-of-the-draw game.
“We’re (hurt) this year by not playing Bangor,” said Edward Little coach Darren Hartley.
That’s true, but two of the teams jockeying for position with the Red Eddies in this logjam are in the same boat.
Lawrence (5-0) and Bangor (5-1) appear safely ensconced in the post-season field. Of the five teams giving chase, only Lewiston (3-2) and Messalonskee (3-2) have the chance to play both this season’s power brokers. The Blue Devils are done with the Bulldogs and Rams, for now, while the Eagles will conclude the regular season against Lawrence.
Brunswick and Mt. Blue both drew Bangor on their schedule but missed Lawrence. And EL, Brunswick and Mt. Blue each faced both Oxford Hills and Cony, two winless teams that won’t yield many points when it’s all settled three nights before Halloween.
The only recourse for the teams involved in this lottery is to take care of whatever is left within their power on the field. Games such as Brunswick-EL and Mt. Blue-Messalonskee (tonight), Brunswick-Lewiston and Mt. Blue-Bangor (next week) and Lewiston-Edward Little (two weeks away) take on the personality of elimination bouts.
“I really think we have to win our last two (to have a chance),” Hartley said.
Triple whammy
Eastern Class B weighted its two-year schedule based on members’ recent success. That wasn’t exactly the best news in the world this season for Leavitt.
Winslow, Waterville and Gardiner are the three schools standing helmet-and-shoulder-pads above the pack, and the Hornets, a longtime power at this level, were one of the PTC schools appointed to play all three this season.
Each member of the Big Three carved out a past winning tradition in Class A. Gardiner and Waterville were perennial playoff teams in the large-school division right up until dropping down a notch prior to the 2005 season.
Leavitt’s run through the obstacle course concludes tonight at Gardiner. The Hornets also took it on the chin from Winslow and Waterville, but coach Mike Hathaway doesn’t mind the view.
“I know a lot of people looked at it as this was a part of our schedule we weren’t really crazy about playing,” Hathaway said, “but we looked at it as a good test.”
The weighted schedule in Eastern B has given a boost to some of the less-established teams in the league, as well.
“You look at Mount Desert Island, and they’ve had a chance to win four football games,” Hathaway said. “We played Maranacook, and they’re much stronger than last year. Having a chance to get that experience and win some games is the way you build a program.”
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